Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Peter,

>
> 
> Most of the posts re MMD are banter between a group of enthusiastic
> traders (affectionately called MMDers) who ride every trade, However
> interpersed with this banter are some good background posts re MMD
> and other bio tech companies. Quite amusing message board really
> that little family
> 
> No doubt a bit of hype does a have a bearing on the price - but then
> I think everybody agrees that this is a high risk investment in that
> the mechanical heart may never to come to fruition.
> 
> Then again is it much different than a punt on the speculation that.
> say,  FBU being may be taken over -  or what will happen to the
> AIRVA and AIRVB shares under many of the different Air New Zealand
> scenarios.
> 
> 
Big, big difference as I see it.   MMD does not have a sustainable 
business plan.  Air New Zealand and Fletcher Building do (even if Air 
NZs fallback position involves a drastic downsizing.)   Fletcher 
Building is able to carry on without a takeover bid emerging.  Air NZ 
has at least told us how much cash they need to become a top 20 
airline (however unpalatably large that figure may be).

Sure if things don't pan out, an investor could easily lose their 
shirt with both Fletcher Building and Air New Zealand if they buy in 
at current prices.   But if things don't pan out with MMD that same 
investor might be down for the count.  And when you have nothing left 
there is no getting up off the canvas.  SNOOPY




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