Forum Archive Index - March 2001

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

>
> I've kept out of beat the brokers competition
> lately because as you all probably know by now
> I think its aiming at the wrong objective (simple
> minded short term capital growth instead of 
> substantial permanent value enhancement) 
>


Hugh, I have kept out of previous contests which were even more 
extreme (guessing where the NZSE index would be in a month or so and 
selecting the best performing share for a given month) for similar 
reasons.  They were totally irrelevant to me, although it needs to be 
said that I am an investor, not a trader.

However, the one year time frame does mean that the 'Beat the 
Brokers' is a little more interesting to me than those other 
contests, which is why I entered.   That said, my entry of SKC, 
AIRVB, TEL, RBD and CEN is actually perverse as I chose them all as 
income shares (all having historical dividend yields of around 10%, 
but which nevertheless offered some possibility of core earnings 
increase in earnings in the future).  This is in the belief that 
'substantial permanent value enhancement' as you put it, will 
actually come from growth in real income.  At face value, none of 
these shares offered much prospect of of 'simple minded short term 
capital growth' but I thought my selection would make an interesting 
contrast with some of the more 'risky' entries of others, and so it 
has proved.

I don't expect to win the competition, as I don't expect any radical 
surprises from these shares during the year that would suddenly and 
unexpectedly ramp my share selection prices.  But nevertheless I 
thought it might be interesting to see what a 'conservative/income' 
investor might come up with in comparison with what seems to be the 
short term high flying nature of some of the other portfolios 
entered.   There is of course a long way to go yet, but my prediction 
is that come the end of the year, the ranking of the 'Snoopy' 
portfolio will be a bit of a surprise. SNOOPY

PS I have also noted with interest that the industry specific 
Port/port is doing surprisingly well!



 

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