Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>]

I presume you mean John Maynard Keynes?
With the utmost respect, I must, if asked for my opinion, tell you that I
regard your account as rubbish.  ' J.M.Keynes

Keynes could not have traded the Forex as it did not exist prior 1960. What
he did and he was brilliant at it he was able to manipulate trade between
Gold and Currencies. He was a great econominist. Comparing him to the
economists of today is like comparing Ghandi to Bush. Both were and are
Leaders of a country, but that is as a far as it goes.J.M.Keynes is a rather
large exception to the Rule. I have read all his books especially his '
Treatise on Probability '.

I place him at the forefront of my trading knowledge as I do WD Gann, Bayer
and even Benjamin Graham.

Another exception to the rule is international philanthropist George Soros
he graduated from the London School of Economics in 1952. In 1956, he moved
to the United States. He is by far the greatest Currency trader in the
world.

My statement was aimed at Economists in general, those that make their
living predicting the direction of economies. George Soros himself made the
statement that he had little respect for mainstream economists.A trader with
a degree in Economics is a far cry from a Economists trying to trade.

The rest don't really matter unless you are into silly stuff like
Burma/Myanmar,
> Bhutan, Indonesia (its effective economy is relatively small given the
huge
> inefficiencies, corruption, currency devaluations since they took over
from
> the Dutch),

Being from Indonesia I take offence at your term Silly Stuff. But that is
typical of the ignorance of the previous statement. Asian Currencies: Most
idiots like you have very little idea of Asia, you pick up all your info
from mags and Newspapers.Little experience from actually being there and
living there.

I doubt the economy of Indonesia is as small, corrupt and as inefficient as
you ignorantly state. How about your own economy? I seem to remember a major
period a few years ago when your country was experiencing ( inefficiencies,
corruption, currency devaluations). All economies experience the cycle of
economic growth and the cycle of decline. Compared to 20 years ago Indonesia
has experienced enormous economic developement. I hope that you are not
making the claim that your own country was developed without corrupt
officials taking advantage of it. Your country is but a handful of people
whereas Indonesia is a country of 200 Million people, Of course corruption
would stand out like a sore thumb, whereas you small population can
surrepticiously have the same problems without the obvious exposure.

I would hardly think I would claim Japan is pegged when it is the BOJ that
is the most active trader and manipulator of the world currencies, Japan has
enormous problems trying to keep it currency at a lower value to the US
Dollar.The BOJ historically buys enormous amonts of US Dollars when the
cross rate drops.

 India has similar problems and it uses its enormous Gold reserves to
achieve similar results.

Ever since the Euro reached parity it has gradually taken over from the US
dollar. To the point today that we have the Euro trading with the Volatility
previously the realm of the US Dollar. Volatility in the US Dollar has
almost flattened.

With the utmost respect, I must, if asked for my opinion, tell you that I
regard your account as rubbish.  ' J.M.Keynes

Woody



----- Original Message -----
From: "hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Sunday, February 15, 2004 4:50 AM
Subject: Re: Re: [sharechat] Political calculation behind low US $ Reply


> Wrong target old chap - there's plenty of economists who
> have successfully traded currencies - how about Keynes himself?
> I expect you'll find that most curreny traders in the US these days
> have economics degrees.
>
> I thought the statement that Asian currencies have artificially pegged
> their currencies too low was a pretty fair statement. How about China
> (both Mainland and Taiwan), both have absolutely huge overseas
> reserves, Japan, Malaysia (whose defense to the Asian crisis in recent
> years was to freeze most currency transactions and peg its currency),
> India which still has most overseas currency capital transactions pegged
> and huge and growing overseas reserves. Hong Kong is pegged against the
> US dollar at too low a rate.
> The rest don't really matter unless you are into silly stuff like
Burma/Myanmar,
> Bhutan, Indonesia (its effective economy is relatively small given the
huge
> inefficiencies, corruption, currency devaluations since they took over
from
> the Dutch), Nepal &.
> The two exceptions I might grant you are South Korea and Thailand which
> are both struggling to keep their exchange rates down....
>
> Until these Asian economies liberalise properly incl Japan there's going
> to be a huge struggle and liberalised economies such as the US are going
> to be trying to manage their exchange rates down to compete with them.
>
> There's only the odd country which has managed to cope with a continually
rising
> exchange rate by means of increasing efficiency - Germany is the main
> example and it seems to have come to the end of that road about now.
> Maybe Switzerland, Sweden and Finland are the others.
>
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