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Hi Woody,
Hope this makes sense ...
FA involves analysing the relevance and
weighting/influence of information from as many sources as
possible. Numbers play a part in that, eg; a number is just a number until it is
given relevance by the information it relates to.
May I ask, do you need to remain alert to
the possible/probable impact/influence of world
events on the market you trade?
Is it possible to trade successfully on the
forex market using only charts without giving any consideration
to the impact/influence of world events, OR; do you only consider the
impact/influence on your market from a 'numbers on charts'
perspective?
You keep well abreast of world news -
this is evident in your posts, so, thinking
out loud. ... could it be that you use a mix of FA and TA
when trading (with of course, buy/sell decisions weighted heavily
by TA)?
Is this possible or am I completely
off-track?
Regards,
Cris
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 11:30
PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] TLS oh!
Snoopy
Snoopy
When are you going to give the TA Traders the Respect
they all deserve.
Phaedrus kicked your butt on that call, admit it for
once.
Anyway I have yet to find a fundamental trader willing to take me
on with
the Forex. I have laid out this challenge many times yet not one FA
Trader
has come forward to take up the challenge. So here it is again:
I
challenge any FA Trader to trade the Euro/Usd Swap or the Usd/Jpy
swap
using Fundamentals only over a period of 6 Months. I will trade it
using TA
Only:
Any Takers???
Woody
Great Chart
Phaedrus I often use 5/15/30 Harmonic MA
----- Original Message
-----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To:
<sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent:
Friday, February 06, 2004 9:30 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat]
TLS
> Hi Phaedrus,
>
> >
> >
Snoopy,
> >You say "It is actually a low risk strategy buying
something
> > that you have figured out with your F/A is cheap no
matter what
> > the trend is doing."
> > I fear you
have learnt nothing from your experience with TLS!
> >
>
>
>
>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00370.shtml
>
>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00406.shtml
>
>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00411.shtml
>
>
>
> Ah Phaedrus! You have the memory of an
elephant! I must say that I
> enjoyed rereading that
little exchange from the archives.
> Congratulations on your two
successful Telstra trades. I wonder what
> happened to our old
mate Peter Maiden? His posts were usually good
>
reading. I hope his reliance on charts did not turn him into a dot
com
> victim!
>
> >
> >In 2001
> >when
TLS was still in a clear downtrend you were using the same
>
>fundamentalist arguments to advocate it as a hold or buy, saying
"3
> >years down the track I would think potential shareholders would
be
> >very well rewarded if they bought at these levels." Quite
the
> >reverse, I am afraid.
> >
>
> Cut me some
slack Phaedrus. My years have twelve months in them.
> Still four
months to go ;-) !
>
> But let's not leave half the story
out either. I refer of course to the
> dividends!
>
>
26 Oct 2001: 11cps
> 29 Apr 2002: 11cps
> 28 Oct 2002:
11cps
> 30 Apr 2003: 15cps
> 31 Oct 2003:
12cps
> 30 Apr 2004: 12cps (hopefully?)
>
> Total
72cps
>
> >
> >Three years ago, on the basis of
the fundamentals,
> > you couldn't see TLS "going as low as
$5.60" (It fell
> > to $3.96)
> >
>
>
Yes. I also didn't forsee the full impact of the folly of
investing in
Pacific
> Century Cyber Works in Hong
Kong. This may come as a shock to
> you
Phaedrus, but I do not foresee everything! I make the
best calls I
> can at the time. That's all.
>
> The
objective is not to stop making mistakes (as we all make them, both
> as
investors and comnpany management). The objective is to
make
> sure you learn from the experience. Telstra have
learned from their
> mistake and are unwinding their growth
investment strategy in Asia.
> The share price performance in the future
will probably change because
> of that. However, I notice,
Phaedrus, that your 2004 share chart for TLS
> goes back and includes
the prevailing sentiment from the dot com era.
>
> How long
before Telstra makes a bolt for the next resistance level of
>
$A7.40? How useful is this 'historic' section of your
chart?
>
> >
> >As I said back then "Your devotion to
this stock (because
> >of its good fundamentals) has cost you nearly
40% in 18 months."
> >
>
> True, but since then I am only
down another 10%. Or if I include
> dividends I am actually *up*
on a cash basis. Just because a share
> plunges 40% in 18
months, that doesn't mean you should automatically
> sell it
today. You have to evaluate the expected investment
> performance
going *forward* to make that kind of investment decision.
>
> Now
I freely admit I haven't been 'well rewarded' over the period from
>
June 2001 up until now by holding TLS. But it hasn't been a
disaster
> either. I am still wearing the same shirt as I was when
I wrote that
> earlier post in 2001, while there are plenty of
'dot com' bare chested
> individuals around. I suppose
I could 'sell' my TLS shares now, and
> stick the money in the
bank. But then I would be earning less than I am
> currently
receiving in dividends. And I think the forecast performance of
>
Telstra going forward looks good.
>
> SNOOPY
>
>
discl: hold TLS
>
>
> --
> Message sent by
Snoopy
> on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
>
----------------------------------
> "Q: If you call a dog tail a leg,
how many legs does a dog have?"
> "A: Four. Calling a tail a leg
doesn't make it a leg."
>
>
>
>
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