Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>]

Snoopy
When are you going to give the TA Traders the Respect they all deserve.
Phaedrus kicked your butt on that call, admit it for once.

Anyway I have yet to find a fundamental trader willing to take me on with
the Forex. I have laid out this challenge many times yet not one FA Trader
has come forward to take up the challenge. So here it is again:
I challenge any FA Trader to trade the Euro/Usd Swap or the Usd/Jpy swap
using Fundamentals only over a period of 6 Months. I will trade it using TA
Only:
 Any Takers???

Woody

Great Chart Phaedrus I often use 5/15/30 Harmonic MA
----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 9:30 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] TLS


> Hi Phaedrus,
>
> >
> > Snoopy,
> >You say "It is actually a low risk strategy buying something
> > that you have figured out with your F/A is cheap no matter what
> > the trend is doing."
> >  I fear you have learnt nothing from your experience with TLS!
> >
> >
> >http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00370.shtml
> >http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00406.shtml
> >http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00411.shtml
> >
>
> Ah Phaedrus!  You have the memory of an elephant!    I must say that I
> enjoyed rereading that little exchange from the archives.
> Congratulations on your two successful Telstra trades.  I wonder what
> happened to our old mate Peter Maiden?    His posts were usually good
> reading.  I hope his reliance on charts did not turn him into a dot com
> victim!
>
> >
> >In 2001
> >when TLS was still in a clear downtrend you were using the same
> >fundamentalist arguments to advocate it as a hold or buy, saying "3
> >years down the track I would think potential shareholders would be
> >very well rewarded if they bought at these levels." Quite the
> >reverse, I am afraid.
> >
>
> Cut me some slack Phaedrus.  My years have twelve months in them.
> Still four months to go ;-)  !
>
> But let's not leave half the story out either.  I refer of course to the
> dividends!
>
> 26 Oct 2001: 11cps
> 29 Apr 2002: 11cps
> 28 Oct 2002:  11cps
> 30 Apr 2003:  15cps
> 31 Oct 2003:  12cps
> 30 Apr 2004:  12cps (hopefully?)
>
> Total 72cps
>
> >
> >Three years ago, on the basis of the  fundamentals,
> > you couldn't see TLS "going as low as $5.60" (It fell
> >  to $3.96)
> >
>
> Yes.   I also didn't forsee the full impact of the folly of investing in
Pacific
> Century Cyber Works in Hong Kong.     This may come as a shock to
> you Phaedrus, but I do not foresee everything!     I make the best calls I
> can at the time.  That's all.
>
> The objective is not to stop making mistakes (as we all make them, both
> as investors and comnpany management).   The objective is to make
> sure you learn from the experience.   Telstra have learned from their
> mistake and are unwinding their growth  investment strategy in Asia.
> The share price performance in the future will probably change because
> of that.  However, I notice, Phaedrus, that your 2004 share chart for TLS
> goes back and includes the prevailing sentiment  from the dot com era.
>
> How long before Telstra makes a bolt for the next resistance level of
> $A7.40?    How useful is this 'historic' section of your chart?
>
> >
> >As I said back then "Your devotion to this stock (because
> >of its good fundamentals) has cost you nearly 40% in 18 months."
> >
>
> True, but since then I am only down another 10%.  Or if I include
> dividends I am actually *up* on a cash basis.   Just because a share
> plunges 40% in 18 months, that doesn't mean you should automatically
> sell it today.  You have to evaluate the expected investment
> performance going *forward* to make that kind of investment decision.
>
> Now I freely admit I haven't been 'well rewarded' over the period from
> June 2001 up until now by holding TLS.   But it hasn't been a disaster
> either.  I am still wearing the same shirt as I was when I wrote that
> earlier post in 2001, while there are plenty of  'dot com'  bare chested
> individuals around.   I suppose I could 'sell' my TLS shares now, and
> stick the money in the bank.  But then I would be earning less than I am
> currently receiving in dividends.  And I think the forecast performance of
> Telstra going forward looks good.
>
> SNOOPY
>
> discl: hold TLS
>
>
> --
> Message sent by Snoopy
> on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
> ----------------------------------
> "Q: If you call a dog tail a leg, how many legs does a dog have?"
> "A: Four.  Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg."
>
>
>
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