Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Phaedrus,

>
> Snoopy,
>You say "It is actually a low risk strategy buying something
> that you have figured out with your F/A is cheap no matter what
> the trend is doing." 
>  I fear you have learnt nothing from your experience with TLS!
>
>
>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00370.shtml
>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00406.shtml
>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00411.shtml
>

Ah Phaedrus!  You have the memory of an elephant!    I must say that I 
enjoyed rereading that little exchange from the archives.    
Congratulations on your two successful Telstra trades.  I wonder what 
happened to our old mate Peter Maiden?    His posts were usually good 
reading.  I hope his reliance on charts did not turn him into a dot com 
victim!

>
>In 2001
>when TLS was still in a clear downtrend you were using the same
>fundamentalist arguments to advocate it as a hold or buy, saying "3
>years down the track I would think potential shareholders would be
>very well rewarded if they bought at these levels." Quite the
>reverse, I am afraid. 
>

Cut me some slack Phaedrus.  My years have twelve months in them.  
Still four months to go ;-)  !

But let's not leave half the story out either.  I refer of course to the 
dividends!

26 Oct 2001: 11cps
29 Apr 2002: 11cps
28 Oct 2002:  11cps
30 Apr 2003:  15cps
31 Oct 2003:  12cps
30 Apr 2004:  12cps (hopefully?)

Total 72cps

>
>Three years ago, on the basis of the  fundamentals, 
> you couldn't see TLS "going as low as $5.60" (It fell
>  to $3.96) 
>

Yes.   I also didn't forsee the full impact of the folly of investing in 
Pacific 
Century Cyber Works in Hong Kong.     This may come as a shock to 
you Phaedrus, but I do not foresee everything!     I make the best calls I 
can at the time.  That's all.

The objective is not to stop making mistakes (as we all make them, both 
as investors and comnpany management).   The objective is to make 
sure you learn from the experience.   Telstra have learned from their 
mistake and are unwinding their growth  investment strategy in Asia.  
The share price performance in the future will probably change because 
of that.  However, I notice, Phaedrus, that your 2004 share chart for TLS 
goes back and includes the prevailing sentiment  from the dot com era.  

How long before Telstra makes a bolt for the next resistance level of  
$A7.40?    How useful is this 'historic' section of your chart? 

>
>As I said back then "Your devotion to this stock (because
>of its good fundamentals) has cost you nearly 40% in 18 months."
>

True, but since then I am only down another 10%.  Or if I include 
dividends I am actually *up* on a cash basis.   Just because a share 
plunges 40% in 18 months, that doesn't mean you should automatically 
sell it today.  You have to evaluate the expected investment 
performance going *forward* to make that kind of investment decision.

Now I freely admit I haven't been 'well rewarded' over the period from 
June 2001 up until now by holding TLS.   But it hasn't been a disaster 
either.  I am still wearing the same shirt as I was when I wrote that 
earlier post in 2001, while there are plenty of  'dot com'  bare chested 
individuals around.   I suppose I could 'sell' my TLS shares now, and 
stick the money in the bank.  But then I would be earning less than I am 
currently receiving in dividends.  And I think the forecast performance of 
Telstra going forward looks good.

SNOOPY

discl: hold TLS


--
Message sent by Snoopy 
on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
----------------------------------
"Q: If you call a dog tail a leg, how many legs does a dog have?"
"A: Four.  Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg."



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