Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["winner69 ." <wwinner69@hotmail.com>]

Looking back over the many posts (over many years) about the TLS chart it is 
amazing how often (from a technical point of view) the 465 -467 price pops 
up in discussions.

Here we go again. Over the last few days 467 has been a solid support level 
- several times on Monday and again today it dropped to that price ... but 
didn't go any lower.

Phaedrus has shown us that after the long downtrend was broken there was a 
period when the price trended up nicely. He also pointed out recently that 
that uptrend has ceased and that TLS is now in a trading range and with 
todays action it seems that 467 is a solid support level of the current 
trading range.

On fundamentals the market seems rather confused. The latest half year 
result was a bit mixed - cost savings of about $150M but then they spent 
$250M more chasing market share. And the market is probably concerned about 
further potential writedowns re Reach and talk of acquiring Fairfax makes a 
few punters nervous

However the dividend will underpin the price at the current level and when 
you take into account this magic of this 467 figure buying at this price is 
probably a safe bet.

You can always bail out at 500 odd (top of the trading range) if things 
don't look too good in a few weeks/months.

Phaedrus also said that often these trading ranges are often a period of 
consolidation before the uptrend starts again. My theory is that if the 
price breaks out of the top of the trading range the new uptrend will rise 
as much as it previously rose from the commecement of the previous uptrend - 
ie to about 542 or thereabouts.

Thats a good return from 467

Numbers reflected on a drawing that reflects the sentiment of the multitudes 
say this is likely - and the TLS chart seems to behave quite well. A price 
supported by fundsmentals as well.

Good story - or a load of crap?

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