Forum Archive Index - May 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Gerry,

I was hoping I might get some response from your wise head on this 
topic.

>
>
>I have been in Biotechs for about 2 years now. At present I rate NRT
>and CMQ highly.
> 
>NRT Directors left this morning to do a roadshow in Europe and will
>then move to the US on about 15 May.
> 
>At the end of this month there will be the big ASCO Conference and 
the
>YALE people will be presenting research papers on Phenoxodiol, one 
of
>the drugs from NRT. 
> 
>

I think what you are saying here is that the share price is dependent on 
perception of progress as relayed through investor road shows.  I 
agree this is a major factor.  I just don't have the confidence that you 
apparently have to second guess the  reaction to these road shows!

Granted you appear to have a special interest in this sector, and do a 
lot more research on the subject than I do.    Perhaps that is enough to 
give you an edge that most of us don't have?

>
> 
> A few tips: If possible, buy 3 or so different but good companies with
> sufficient cash holdings (NRT and CMQ can raise cash anyway but they
> have good cash).
>
>

Yes very good point.  I too think that cash reserves to see a project to 
completion are critical in the biotech sector.

>
> 
> To get the background, visit Ozestock. They have the posters and
> occasionally get the info. 
>
>

Yes my only comment on that is that it is possible to get so close to the 
situation you lose the ability to see the wood from the trees.  I think the 
fact that Ozestock discussions are ordered on a share by share basis 
could lead to a bias in the discussion that wouldn't be there if the same  
discussions were combined into a more general 'biotech' board.

>
> 
> I don't have the time to further discuss this item but before any
> investment is made, the prospective Investor should do a lot of
> research. Often, standard FA terms are not used but instead other
> parameters prevail.
> 
>

'Often', FA doesn't prevail?    I'd go further and say almost always it 
doesn't!  It's very hard to make accurate profit projections for a 
company that has never made any profits and is moving into a new 
market.

I know that you haven't the time to continue this discussion in depth 
Gerry.   However, I do note that you have carefully omitted the detail 
on whether or not you have actually made any money over all of your 
biotech forays!

I'm starting to think that investing in Biotech is a bit like fishing.   
People seemed spurred on by the big fish that the other guy landed.  
But they never seem to quite land 'the big one' themselves.

SNOOPY


--
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on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
----------------------------------
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Anticipate the anticipation!"




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