Forum Archive Index - May 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Macdunk,

>
>
> You were right so far Snoopy with the warehouse.  I was waiting in the
> wings but it went the other way.  We are only getting the panic sales
> who are being gobbled up by investors like your good self.   the real
> greedies like my bad self might miss out, but then one more bad report
> and I am in with you at a lower rate.  Its great fun I wouldnt miss it
> for quids. 
>
>

I take no credit for being right or wrong.    I am not in the business of 
predicting which way the market will go in the the short term.    I am in 
the business of saying that if the market goes my way then I will take a 
certain action.    And if the market doesn't go my way then I am 
prepared to sit on the sidelines.

Having said that, I'm picking Macdunk, you might get an (even better) 
bargain bite at 'the Warehouse' yet.    There are bound to be some 
active fund managers selling out because of 'risk management' issues.   
They won't want to be seen as overweight on what at the end of the 
year in might be seen as a dud investment (looking strictly on a one 
year basis).

Still, even if we go back to the focus investment group assumptions 
and use a share price of $4.31(today's closing):

$4.31(1+i)^10=($2.85+$13.29)

Solving for 'i' gives a compounding annual rate of return of 14.1%.  

You'd be hard pressed to find a better investment on the NZ market 
over a ten year period than that.  Of course there are any measure of 
commentators out there saying that WHS management have moved 
outside their core competance of NZ retail.   Muir has lost the plot on 
the store shelf content and all of that.  But history has shown that often 
the best time to enter an investment is in times of gloom.

And really if you buy in at today's prices you are getting the WHS 
investment in Oz for nothing.  So even in the worst case scenario of Oz 
turning to custard you haven't really lost anything have you?

SNOOPY

PS Hoping this investment won't go ahead too strongly as in about a 
month's time I will be in a position to put some more of my capital into 
WHS!










 Being a bit
> serious however, take into account that Australians are a bit more
> [cant think of the word its not patriotic might be one eyed] than
> Kiwis that a lot of people here cant comprehend.  THE WHITE AUSTRALIAN
> POLICY.  Bastards coming over here to bludge on the dole.  They let
> all the crap into there place, and they front up here.  That is what I
> heard all the time over there.  Perhaps real people only front up on
> building sites, but to me a KIWI company setting up in oz and its
> goodbye.  
>                              CHEERS MACDUNK 
> PS  It is only an honest point of view send me home if its wrong.

--
Message sent by Snoopy 
on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
----------------------------------
"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
but that still only makes me wrong once."


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