Forum Archive Index - May 2003

["Adrian Ellingham" <raellingham@xtra.co.nz>]

Hallo Phaedrus,

                          I am curious to know why you chose the dip in December last year as the "long term Sell Signal" and not the slightly larger dip in October?   I am not critical of chartists as I find all information which assists sharemarket investment useful.   However this does smack a little of hindsight rather than foresight.

                         

                          Personally, I always think the retail sector is volatile anyway, and investors should go in to that area with that particular thought in mind.   MHI is another which has undergone some "revision" lately for example.  Perhaps by the November-December Christmas "silly" season later this year the WHS price will have improved somewhat.  I notice that at the time of writing there has been an inprovement of some 30 odd cents which would indicate the share was oversold on Friday.  (Too many traders in the market reacting to the new quarterly reporting?)

 

                         I will continue to accumulate WHS on the principle of "dollar cost averaging" which hasn't really let me down yet.   Now may not be such a bad time to buy more.    (Do I sound like a Warren Buffet acolyte?)   Australia, I happen to know from my own experience, is a difficult place for any company to break into.   Lion Nathan, Nuplex and quite a few others have found this out initially to their cost, but in the longer term have managed to do well.  

 

                          For what it is worth, my considered opinion is that WHS is a solid operator, in there for the serious long haul, and given time will continue to grow and succeed.    Perhaps sooner rather than later in fact !      

 

                          However, back to my question.  Can you please explain why you did not see the impending dip as coming  sooner?   Especially as the two major drops in the share price came well into the new year and really only after the recent two successive quarterly profit announcements which dissapointed the market.  Prior to then, and especially the first announcement, there was no apparent reason to suspect other than WHS would continue to live up to investors expectations.

                                         

                                           Cheers,               Skelessi.