Forum Archive Index - July 2002

["lippy" <rathel@xtra.co.nz>]

      If you remember after the first month of the competition i posted a message saying that the stocks which were only picked by one or two people were performing much better than the popular picks.

  Consensus seemed to be at the time that this was because the popular picks were already fully bought up.    However half way through the competition there has been a big turnaround.  The top ten most popular picks are putting in a very credible performance.    Apart from ITC they were all fairly mainstream stocks rather than speculative, although at the time AIR was rather speculative.

             The stocks which were only picked by one person have had mixed fortunes, some making big gains others big losses, but as a group they are now in negative return territory.

          What does all this mean?     One could look at it and say solid companies with real earnings are best.  On the other hand last year it was the speculative stocks which won the day.

          Will be interesting to see if the stocks performing best in the first half also perform best in the second.  Its not hard to imagine ITC putting in another shocking half, will not be so easy for AIR to beat the competition in the second half. 

        My picks would be FFS , FBU ,WAM and TEL.

 Mind you i am no judge,  i picked speculative stocks specifically for the competition (held none) and am now languishing near the bottom.    

  

       

 

      FFS  + 4%

      TEL   -4%

      WHS +14%

      GPG  +9%

      FBU   -4%

      WAM +4%

     SKC   +8%

     AIA     +12%

      AIR    +110%

      ITC     -48%

 

  Nick