Forum Archive Index - December 2000

["Colin Ross" <ceejaynz@xtra.co.nz>]

Pharmaceuticals..

After the introduction of effective Public hygeine ( Sewerage & Clean Potable water) probably Penicillin and its derivatives (Antibiotics as a class ) have been one of the most effective benefits to influence  health otcomes in the 20th Century.

Yet, Alexander Fleming donated Penicillin to the world !!!  I dont think we will see the like of that kind of magnanimity again...

There will soon be a pressing need for anti-microbials to take the place of Antibiotics - they have almost been done to death. The cupboard is rather bare for future releases. Until now, there has usually been a good stock of variants to release to the market when the need becomes apparent ( and the profit dictates).

We are beginning to get access to some useful anti-viral drugs, largely as a result of  intensive research into HIV/AIDS.

There will be enormous opportunities for whomsoever can find a replacement for Antibiotics, and I'm sure the work is being done, probably in the area of genetic engineering - to find ways of attacking microbes without damaging their hosts.

Nerve and Brain Chemistry will offer good opportunities - Alzheimers ,  Parkinsons,  Mad Cow prions, are all likely to feature in our futures as we now live so much longer.......

I think the big winners will be the Companies that have the big bucks to invest, and the encouragement to get satisfactory returns.

The ( particularly in NZ)  trend to beat Drug prices down to the lowest common Generic equivalent, has a detrimental influence on  research.  A good number of international drug Companies have already stopped providing service to New Zealand..

I must say I am pleased to be out of it now..

Gerry, thank you for your thoughtful and careful analyses through the year.

I now have a special folder labelled "Stolwyk"

Regards and greetings to all

Ceejay

----- Original Message -----

From: G Stolwyk

To: sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Saturday, December 16, 2000 8:38 PM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] Isaac Sofaer's view

 

 

 

Geoff,

 

 

I am joining you in thanking Ben and his team, and to wish them and my co-contributors a merry Christmas!!

 

I agree that the outlook is difficult. We had the tulip, IT,and communications manias; what is next?

One would think that the pharmaceutical sector still has something left to offer. One or two overseas infrastructure stocks could be suitable for investment. 

Another look at some British investment trusts may pay, but a lot more research is needed to pull a bunny out of the hat.

However, I have already mentally adjusted myself to sluggish markets next year.

 

It is always possible that an opportunity may arise if the East has problems again or that there will be another event which may affect markets.

 

In the meantime, let us see how the US deals with their deficits and private debt. A lot of money has been lost in the markets by many but some made a lot as well.

 

Come to think of it, citizens of some other countries are also heavy into debt; we need a period of adjustment!   

 

 

Gerry