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From: | Rhys Lewis <rhys.lewis@zivo.co.nz> |
Date: | Wed, 26 Jul 2000 11:03:06 +1200 |
The cellular market is another interesting one. Vodafone is cleaning up with their SMS service, which Telecom has had extreme difficulty matching. Do you know _anyone_ who has ever successfully sent an SMS message from a Nokia 5120i? (The only phone supposed to be able to do it). SMS is big money in the UK, with Vodafone over there pulling in GBP10M+ per month, one can only assume that they are also cleaning up here. There is no indication that Telecom will have any workable SMS service working before the end of the year, and when they do there will be the problem of legacy analog phones not being able to receive etc. Telecom is also way behind on WAP implementation, with sketchy results from their pilot, whereas Vodafone has rolled the service out. I predict that these problems will contribute to considerable loss of business to Telecom Cellular over the next 6-10 months. However after that time the tables will turn dramatically if Telecom can manage to get CDMA to market. If they do, they will be in a position to offer phones with far greater capability than Vodafone's GSM, and the upgrade path for Vodafone is much more difficult. WAP might look good now when there is no other competition, but a 2G or 3G CDMA rollout will make it look like the stone age. So I predict bad news for at least 6 months, and then a possible turn around if they can get over the technical hurdles and deliver CDMA. TEL prob. a good buy around Oct - Nov. Rhys Lewis -----Original Message----- From: Brian Gale [mailto:brigale@i4free.co.nz] Sent: Wednesday, July 26, 2000 10:34 AM To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz Subject: [sharechat] Telecom & XTRA Hi Ben Where did the data come from that you posted yesterday ? Was it just a routine announcement from TEL ? I4free was not mentioned but they now have 83,200 subscribers (as at 26/06/00) and they say they have spend over $2.6m on technical infrastructure and modems to give extra carrying capacity. I am not sure about pre XTRA account customers still using their services. I am still an XTRA account holder but now my use is almost zero. There must be many like me. Sometimes there is congestion on I4free but generally I have found the service good. I have often been linked for several hours without being disconnected. I suppose the $64,000 question is will TEL float XTRA which was muted earlier. It is apparent that TEL have their hands full at present battling Clear, Vodafone and Telstra Saturn for package deals with most of the activity out of Auckland. They must be temporarily relieved that the Govt. inquiry has not required them to unbundle the loop, but this must surely happen eventually or will it be so important in the future with wireless/satellite communication developing. With all that is happening with the big players the competition must be good for the consumer. IMHO it is not surprising that TEL shares have fallen. The monopoly of yesteryear has well and truly gone. The relatively small cake which is the NZ market is being divided up. Who will end up with the biggest piece ? Hope this provokes some discussion. Regards Brian ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.sharechat.co.nz/ New Zealand's home for market investors To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.shtml. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.sharechat.co.nz/ New Zealand's home for market investors To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.shtml.
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