Forum Archive Index - July 2000

[Rhys Lewis <rhys.lewis@zivo.co.nz>]

The cellular market is another interesting one.

Vodafone is cleaning up with their SMS service, which Telecom has had
extreme difficulty matching.  Do you know _anyone_ who has ever successfully
sent an SMS message from a Nokia 5120i?  (The only phone supposed to be able
to do it).

SMS is big money in the UK, with Vodafone over there pulling in GBP10M+ per
month, one can only assume that they are also cleaning up here.

There is no indication that Telecom will have any workable SMS service
working before the end of the year, and when they do there will be the
problem of legacy analog phones not being able to receive etc.  

Telecom is also way behind on WAP implementation, with sketchy results from
their pilot, whereas Vodafone has rolled the service out.

I predict that these problems will contribute to considerable loss of
business to Telecom Cellular over the next 6-10 months.

However after that time the tables will turn dramatically if Telecom can
manage to get CDMA to market.  If they do, they will be in a position to
offer phones with far greater capability than Vodafone's GSM, and the
upgrade path for Vodafone is much more difficult.  WAP might look good now
when there is no other competition, but a 2G or 3G CDMA rollout will make it
look like the stone age.

So I predict bad news for at least 6 months, and then a possible turn around
if they can get over the technical hurdles and deliver CDMA.

TEL prob. a good buy around Oct - Nov.

Rhys Lewis

-----Original Message-----
From: Brian Gale [mailto:brigale@i4free.co.nz]
Sent: Wednesday, July 26, 2000 10:34 AM
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Subject: [sharechat] Telecom & XTRA


Hi Ben
        Where did the data come from that you posted yesterday ? Was it just
a 
routine announcement from TEL ?
        I4free was not mentioned but they now have 83,200 subscribers (as at

26/06/00) and they say they have spend over $2.6m on technical 
infrastructure and modems to give extra carrying capacity.

        I am not sure about pre XTRA account customers still using their
services. 
I am still an XTRA account holder but now my use is almost zero. There must 
be many like me.

        Sometimes there is congestion on I4free but generally I have found
the 
service good.  I have often been linked for several hours without being 
disconnected.

        I suppose the $64,000 question is will TEL float XTRA  which was
muted 
earlier. It is apparent that TEL have their hands full at present battling 
Clear, Vodafone and  Telstra Saturn for package deals with most of the 
activity out of Auckland. They must be temporarily relieved that the Govt. 
inquiry has not required them to unbundle the loop, but this must surely 
happen eventually or will it be so important in the future with 
wireless/satellite communication developing.

With all that is happening with the big players the competition must be 
good for the consumer.

        IMHO it is not surprising that TEL shares have fallen. The monopoly
of 
yesteryear has well and truly gone.  The relatively small cake which is the 
NZ market is being divided up.  Who will end up with the biggest piece ?

Hope this provokes some discussion.

Regards
Brian


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