Forum Archive Index - April 2000

["Peter Riches" <peter@peaktechnology.co.nz>]

JBartley wrote: "There is little doubt in my mind that a crash will come.
The difficulty I have is that I have been reading predictions for such a
crash since 1991...I think the only answer is to diversify, do not use any
form of leverage and have a reasonable amount in cash.  I would be
interested in the comments of others"

I totally agree with your comments Jim.

My opinion is that value investors in the NZ market have no need to panic.
Unlike the situation in 1987 the NZ market is, according to almost all
commentators, undervalued. I expect that when the next big shake-out hits
Wall Street Telecom will initially lead the NZ market down. However we still
have  a good number of quality companies here whose share prices have
languished as 'investors' (perhaps that should be traders/speculators) have
chased unsustainable returns on overseas markets driven by the technology
bubble. When that bubble bursts I wouldn't be at all surprised to soon see
money beginning to flow back into the NZ market as value investors search
for sound 'old-world' companies in which to invest for reasonable dividend
returns and security.

I for one have no intention of bailing out of the market now just because
Wall Street is due for a correction some time. The world didn't end in 1987
and I don't expect it to end when the next big correction hits either.

Them's my thoughts anyway.

Peter




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