Homeward bound

By Andrew Stokes

Sunday 1st September 2002

Immediately after the September 11 terrorist attacks, two predictions quickly gained currency in New Zealand. First, the New Zealand tourism industry was about to suffer a terrible blow as the world's tourists retreated to their living rooms. Second, a flood of expatriate Kiwis would reject their high-paying jobs in dangerous climes and return to the safety of New Zealand. In both cases, a retreat to home and safety was seen as the driving force.

Amid the craziness of those times, these pronouncements seemed quite reasonable. As it happened, one prediction proved very wrong and the other may come true, but the jury is still out.

In tourist terms, September 11 caused barely a ripple - tourist numbers are now at record levels. In terms of returning Kiwis, there are signs of an increasing number opting to head home. But they are not the only ones choosing New Zealand. Growing numbers of non-New Zealanders are also coming here to settle, to such an extent that the government has increased the requirements for skilled migrants to qualify for New Zealand residency.

Whether you look at the movements of short-term tourists or long-term settlers, one trend is clear: New Zealand's people industry is booming.

Arrivals and departures

Take, for example, recent data from Statistics New Zealand, which shows that 92,700 permanent and long-term (PLT) settlers arrived in the year ending June 2002. That's a 33% increase on the previous year. The more interesting statistic, though, is that the number of PLT departures was down 24%, resulting in a net migration gain of 32,800, the highest ever recorded net inflow. Usually, more people leave the country than settle here. The net gain for the June 2002 year was 2400 more than the combined net outflows for the previous three years. If this trend were to continue it would prove significant for population growth, the ethnic base and the provision of community services.

As to the question of whether New Zealand-born expatriates are coming home, there are some interesting trends at work there as well. According to Statistics New Zealand, the number of New Zealand citizens returning home in the year to May increased to 24,800 - a 10-year high and 17% up on the previous year. When we narrow it down to the eight months following September 11, the numbers were up 19% on the previous corresponding eight months.

But before we pronounce the end of the brain drain and a restocking of the nation's talent, there are a few points worth noting. The increase in returning New Zealanders, mainly from the UK and Australia, started before last September. How do we explain that? And the fact remains that there are still more New Zealanders leaving than arriving, though there are signs the gap is narrowing. Finally, PLT arrivals over the past 10 years have been fairly consistent in seasonal terms, and the latest figures may just be an exaggerated version of that trend. In six months' time, however, we may be singing a different tune.

What is making a difference is the net inflow of migrants that aren't New Zealand citizens: 52,700 in the year to June. The biggest net inflow increases came from China (13,800), India (5800), the UK (4900) and South Africa (3200). In June, then-Immigration Minister Lianne Dalziel said the number of immigration applications had increased sharply over the previous 12 months, hence the need to raise the bar for skilled migrant applications.

According to George Hickton, chief executive of Tourism New Zealand, inbound tourist numbers fell in October and November last year but have been on an upward trend ever since. "It hasn't had a major impact on us at all," he says of September 11. China and Korea are the fastest growing markets, with Japan also on the rebound. One of the big movers has been the UK, which is now our number two market after Australia.

It seems that images of a safe and green country are striking a chord with more than just homesick Kiwis.

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