Forum Archive Index - February 2004
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[sharechat] FW: USD how low can it go?
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WOW, HAS Baa Baa started a thread or what!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry for the delay in answering David' question and many subsequent posts, but
had to cook (amatuer chef,--- don't worry Woody) and then eat dinner in the
interim. Now after cocktail hour and a great California Cabernet Sauvignon, I'm
not sure I am able, but here goes.
David, I'm not an economist, so probably can not answer your questions
directly, except with the following ramblings.
Baa Baa, I'm afraid you've gone into panic mode a little early. You suggest in
1. of your post that the NZD decouple from the USD. No such coupling exists.
Indeed, if it did exist, the NZD would be in the same position as the Chinese
currency and the Hong Kong Dollar------------insanely undervalued and due,
sometime in the future for a very severe and volatile ride to the upside. Your
country is wisely doing it in increments, set by the free markets in as far as
they exist.
Indeed, if you were to peg the NZ dollar to the US dollar as the Chinese and
Hong Kong authorities and the Japanese government is essentially trying to do
through intervention, you would have a short term remedy, but long term pain,
when the dam breaks.
In 3. You propose to "Decompose into economic obscurity". I mean to offend no
one, especially Kiwi's, many of whom are my friends, and whom I have a great
fondness for. But, I'm afraid you're already there, AND, it dives me nuts as
well. When I try to find Kiwi financial news on the TV anywhere I go on the
planet, (except NZ) it is not to be found. When TV in the US reports the New
Year's celebration, they always start with Sydney's harbor, never Auckland's
which of course is the first big celebration. My friend this is already a sad
fact.
You also talk about economic depression staring you in the face. My memory is
fuzzy here, but didn't the NZ $ US $ go to approximately .82 in the not so far
distant past, when National was in the majority? (Not certain about this)
Mixtrader: Seems you have great insight. Phillips Curve is nonsense. USD is
still overvalued, as it has been for many years. US/OZ trade agreement was a
compromise, but still shoot both of us in the foot. Mixtrader for finance
minister!!!!!!!!
SNOOPY
1. Yes.
2. Believe gold and silver shares will outperform the NZ currency over time.
3. Yes
4. It is behind the NZ dollar.
5. Actually, both.
I've actually toyed with the idea of establishing a residence in NZ. I'm not
sure they would let me in and in any event it would have to be a part time
residence since we have six children locally and eleven grandchildren and
counting. It would be very hard to disappear.
Do not have a bunker, but do have plenty of Canned baked beans and a good
supply of firearms, (and know how to use them) to ward off the marauding masses
from ourselves. Gold is in a safe deposit box. (Only a few coins, as insurance)
No doubt when I go back to my email, where will be several more posts on this
thread, but I think I'm going to bed.
Good night all.
Allan
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