Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>]

Yes Snoopy
I am not steadfast in all my beliefs. I can open my mind to change. Unlike
two very voiceiferous posters who, tho I love them: sit glued in their
seats, blinkers and seat belts on, in first gear driving in their foggy
universe with the lights off.
I am here to enjoy my lifestyle and to ultimately make money. Yes I am now
using a fundamental tool  to verify a potential trade: but I see no backing
down of my previous claims of the great benefits of TA trading.
    Now I am constantly being told by one pure FA trader that all us: TA
traders can only trade short term and that long term trading is the realm
only of FA traders. Well that is pureist hogwash, A chartist can trade any
time frame, 10 min to 10 years with exactly the same results. A chart is a
chart, in fact I always consult my yearly, monthly, weekly and daily charts
before I make a decision.
Yes, I now use a couple of FA indicators, unfortunatly for the few and I
mean only the few FA traders in this forum they lack this insight to see
beyond their FA decisions. After all the more indicators that imply a stock
is about to move the better.
I have become a better trader from this forum, that I must admit and I thank
those that have contributed, perhaps if FA traders could actually see the
Technical side of their stock they too might improve. Tho some already know
all they need to know.
I prefer to quote Socrates:
' I know I am more intelligent that most people because most people are
ignorant and do not know it, whereas I am ignorant and know it'
Yes Snoopy I am straddling the fence, but perhaps you should join me and see
the view from here.

Woody
----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Sunday, February 08, 2004 10:05 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Investing, and falling in love. reply


> Hi Woody,
>
> >
> > Snoopy
> > Answer to the first question NO! my system has matured as I have
> > learnt. AND I have since starting this chat forum been viewing a few
> > FA techniques. In fact I used the fact that  in general .dot.com
> > companies are losing money to purchase Puts in Cisco, Amazon and
> > Microsoft the last few weeks. I still used my TA signals to enter:
> >
>
> So you are now using F/A to zero in on some trading opportunities in
> shares.  Pleased to see you are still improving Woody.  We will make a
> good F/A guy out of you yet! ;-)
>
> I think over the last couple of years Phaedrus has modified his trading
> system to include more information on moving averages.  (this is just
> from memory, I am sure Phaedrus will correct me if I am wrong)
>
> >
> > However I picked them out using the News and the beta coefficient
> > which is a US Stock Fundamental ratio of the volatility of the stock
> > to its index.
> >
>
> Yes I am familiar with the concept of 'Beta'.  If you believe in 'Beta'
> then you have to realise that it means a share can jump significantly
> either up or down.    Personally I don't use Beta, because I can't see
> the value in buying a share that might suddenly plunge in value.  But if
> a share is in a trading range and the price is high then I can see the
> appeal in selecting a high Beta overpriced share and then shorting it
> (as you can do if you trade in the USA).   You are starting to make a
> dangerous amount of sense here Woody ;-).   A potential problem with
> this method is that 'High Beta' stocks can suddenly behave like 'Low
> Beta' stocks and no-one will tell you the rules have changed.
>
> Ruth gave us some good advice to take a periodic reality check.  It
> sounds obvious, but sometimes the simple obvious things are the
> things we forget to do!    So good advice there from the Cap.
>
> Getting an outsiders perspective on the Airline industry may have kept
> me from ever buying Air New Zealand.  But back when I bought them, I
> had never heard of Buffett, not the internet for that matter.     So my
> sage words on this matter are:
> *You should for any share in which you invest, you should try to figure
> out how large the market is, and who the price setting players are.*
> Generally you should look to invest in the price setting players.  If you
> can't find any, then try another industry!
>
> Anyone else got some sage words of advice on this theme?
>
> SNOOPY
>
>
> --
> Message sent by Snoopy
> on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
> ----------------------------------
> "Stay on the upside of the downside,
> Anticipate the anticipation!"
>
>
>
>
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>



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