Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>]

BaaBaa
If you trade gold, and if you watch your base currency's price in relation
to the USD then you do trade the Forex.
Any poster that buys Gold stock or for that matter any precious metal stock
actually takes a position in that metal whether they know it or not. And any
transaction accross the Tasman is a transaction in currencies.

I also think that the sophistication in general of the posters in this forum
is on par with what you believe yourself to be.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Baa Baa" <baa_baa@hotmail.com>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Thursday, February 05, 2004 2:31 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] AUS Gold Stock weakness Reply


> Woody, that would make sense for a trader in metal and forex. I'm not
aware
> whether people on this board are that sophisticated. Are they?, or are we
> only talking to each other -not that I trade forex mind you. I don't. I
just
> make sure I know the forex effect before making a trade on anything
> denominated in USD, that I have to buy with my non-USD currency.
>
> p.s. Even as Gold becomes currency, it'll always be metal, and precious.
;)
> People might find it interesting to read up on 'standard weights and
> measures' as the underlying value equation of tangible / fungible assets.
In
> our debt laden, paper based currency environment, these subtle nuances
seem
> lost to the general populous.
>
>
> >From: "Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>
> >Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> >To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> >Subject: Re: [sharechat] AUS Gold Stock weakness Reply
> >Date: Thu, 5 Feb 2004 14:07:45 +1000
> >
> >BaaBaa
> >
> >In my opinion to trade or to invest in the precious metals without
trading
> >the forex market as well is a recipe for disaster.
> >In days gone by a rally in gold sent the USD/JPY to the floor, a decline
> >sent it thru the roof. These days that power has been transferred to the
> >Euro. The present boring range that has grinded the USD/JPY to an almost
> >halt is proof of that.
> >The once volatile US Dollar and the sedate Euro have swapped, ever since
> >the
> >Euro reached parity.
> >The phrase Buy Gold $ell the Dollar has now become Buy Gold $ell the
Euro.
> >$o you see a good knowledge of the directions of the various Forex Swap
> >currencies is a deciding advantage to making money in the Cash World and
> >lets not kid ourselves Gold is no longer a precious metal it is a
currency.
> >
> >Woody
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Baa Baa" <baa_baa@hotmail.com>
> >To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> >Sent: Thursday, February 05, 2004 1:30 PM
> >Subject: [sharechat] AUS Gold Stock weakness
> >
> >
> > > ... Checking out the POG in $Aus shows a steady decline since late
Dec03
> >in
> > > an overall declining market.
> > >
>
>http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=XAU&c=AUD&rd=365&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2003&ld=
3
> >1&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=
> > >
> > > Aus Miners will continue to experience weakness until the POG in $Aus
> > > recovers. (same deal for the SA's, NZ's) This is a factor of:
> > >
> > > - dig up the gold in $Aus = expenses
> > > - sell the gold in USD = income
> > > - convert USD income to Aus, minus expenses = P&L
> > >
> > > Until the Aus declines significantly against the USD, or put another
> >way,
> > > until the POG in $Aus breaks trend and goes upwards, revenues after
> >Forex
> > > will decline (for the same volume) and P&L will suffer. This is
> >compounded
> > > by FA valuing reserves in a strengthening currency environment, i.e.
> > > Reserves @ $US-oz / forex rate = declining value of reserves in local
> > > currency = FA weakness.
> > >
> > > The trigger event we're all waiting for is when the countries with the
> > > strongest currencies against the USD realise they're importing US
> >inflation
> > > and their economies, esp exports, -ergo balance of trade, is suffering
> >...
> > > AND ... their response has to be to intervene through competitive
> >currency
> > > debasement.
> > >
> > > We've talked some already about phase two being competitive
debasement.
> >By
> > > all accounts, it would appear that it hasn't really started yet, so in
> >the
> > > interim, we can only look for the pain to continue, or, hope that Gold
> > > appreciates in USD faster than the Forex effect takes it away.
> > >
> > > "What Gold bringeth, the Forex effect taketh away".
> > >
> > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > Surf the net and talk on the phone with Xtra Jetstream @
> > > http://www.xtra.co.nz/products/0,,5803,00.html !
> > >
> > >
> > >
>
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> >
> >
> >
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