Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["Russell" <allanrussell90@hotmail.com>]

keep it up we are all here to learn.
Allan.
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Baa Baa" <baa_baa@hotmail.com>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Thursday, February 05, 2004 5:31 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] AUS Gold Stock weakness Reply


> Woody, that would make sense for a trader in metal and forex. I'm not
aware
> whether people on this board are that sophisticated. Are they?, or are we
> only talking to each other -not that I trade forex mind you. I don't. I
just
> make sure I know the forex effect before making a trade on anything
> denominated in USD, that I have to buy with my non-USD currency.
>
> p.s. Even as Gold becomes currency, it'll always be metal, and precious.
;)
> People might find it interesting to read up on 'standard weights and
> measures' as the underlying value equation of tangible / fungible assets.
In
> our debt laden, paper based currency environment, these subtle nuances
seem
> lost to the general populous.
>
>
> >From: "Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>
> >Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> >To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> >Subject: Re: [sharechat] AUS Gold Stock weakness Reply
> >Date: Thu, 5 Feb 2004 14:07:45 +1000
> >
> >BaaBaa
> >
> >In my opinion to trade or to invest in the precious metals without
trading
> >the forex market as well is a recipe for disaster.
> >In days gone by a rally in gold sent the USD/JPY to the floor, a decline
> >sent it thru the roof. These days that power has been transferred to the
> >Euro. The present boring range that has grinded the USD/JPY to an almost
> >halt is proof of that.
> >The once volatile US Dollar and the sedate Euro have swapped, ever since
> >the
> >Euro reached parity.
> >The phrase Buy Gold $ell the Dollar has now become Buy Gold $ell the
Euro.
> >$o you see a good knowledge of the directions of the various Forex Swap
> >currencies is a deciding advantage to making money in the Cash World and
> >lets not kid ourselves Gold is no longer a precious metal it is a
currency.
> >
> >Woody
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Baa Baa" <baa_baa@hotmail.com>
> >To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> >Sent: Thursday, February 05, 2004 1:30 PM
> >Subject: [sharechat] AUS Gold Stock weakness
> >
> >
> > > ... Checking out the POG in $Aus shows a steady decline since late
Dec03
> >in
> > > an overall declining market.
> > >
>
>http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=XAU&c=AUD&rd=365&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2003&ld=
3
> >1&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=
> > >
> > > Aus Miners will continue to experience weakness until the POG in $Aus
> > > recovers. (same deal for the SA's, NZ's) This is a factor of:
> > >
> > > - dig up the gold in $Aus = expenses
> > > - sell the gold in USD = income
> > > - convert USD income to Aus, minus expenses = P&L
> > >
> > > Until the Aus declines significantly against the USD, or put another
> >way,
> > > until the POG in $Aus breaks trend and goes upwards, revenues after
> >Forex
> > > will decline (for the same volume) and P&L will suffer. This is
> >compounded
> > > by FA valuing reserves in a strengthening currency environment, i.e.
> > > Reserves @ $US-oz / forex rate = declining value of reserves in local
> > > currency = FA weakness.
> > >
> > > The trigger event we're all waiting for is when the countries with the
> > > strongest currencies against the USD realise they're importing US
> >inflation
> > > and their economies, esp exports, -ergo balance of trade, is suffering
> >...
> > > AND ... their response has to be to intervene through competitive
> >currency
> > > debasement.
> > >
> > > We've talked some already about phase two being competitive
debasement.
> >By
> > > all accounts, it would appear that it hasn't really started yet, so in
> >the
> > > interim, we can only look for the pain to continue, or, hope that Gold
> > > appreciates in USD faster than the Forex effect takes it away.
> > >
> > > "What Gold bringeth, the Forex effect taketh away".
> > >
> > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > Surf the net and talk on the phone with Xtra Jetstream @
> > > http://www.xtra.co.nz/products/0,,5803,00.html !
> > >
> > >
> > >
>
>--------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >--
> > > To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
> > > http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
> >To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
> >http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
> >
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Download MSN Messenger @  http://messenger.xtramsn.co.nz   - add your
> friends!
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
> http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
>
>

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/