Forum Archive Index - September 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Woody

>
> I know I do come over a little arrogant to some. However arrogance is
> a need for trading. You must believe 100% in your system to trade . I
> do! I don't buy lotto tickets. We trade full time, we have $1000s
> worth of computers, software data providers etc. We have an office in
> the heart of Cairns Nth Qld.
>Salaries for 4 directors, four leased cars ETC. We are not
>Millionaires. However we do all right. All with Pure TA Trading.
>What is wrong with that?
>Woody
> 

As you say Woody, "to each his own".  I have no criticisim of your 
operation.  If it works for you, and from the way you are speaking it 
does, then great.

What I am saying is that quoting examples of three cherry picked 
traders who have made it big over a retrospectively selected period of 
time doesn't prove much in the argument of FA (in particular Buffett) vs 
TA.     

My local lotto outlet has sold 19 first division winning tickets.    19 
winners is six times the number of successes you were talking about! 
So therefore lotto must be even better than trading!   I am sure that if I 
interviewed those 19 winners they would all say that lotto had changed 
their life.   But such a study along the lines that 'lotto is good for your 
wealth'  would be spurious without an assessment of the probability of 
success.   Quoting anecdotes like you did doesn't prove anything.   Of 
course lecturing on trading by organizing high priced seminars can be 
very profitable indeed.

I hold WRI shares and the price went from $1.32 to $1.48 in a month 
which is a rise of 12%.     This is an annual rate of return of 400% per 
year.   So therefore if you buy WRI today you can expect a return of 
400% per annum.    You follow the logic?

SNOOPY

PS I don't buy lotto tickets either





 

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