Forum Archive Index - May 2003

["Graeme Richardson" <chemist@actrix.gen.nz>]

The share price is irrelevant! To me all that matters are

1 what is the companies historic, current and predicted return on
shareholder equity? ie how well are they making use of my money!
2 how strong is the companies cashflow, and debt/equity ratio
3 I also look at the dividend yeild (being an investor and not a speculator)

The sector doesnt matter.

The benchmark I set is for a consistent ROE n excess of 25%, and a dividend
(portfolio) exceeding 5%.

For a strong company the share price will rise over the long term as
investors recognise its core value.

A good NZ portfolio, of say 9 companies, will currently have a return of
approx 8%, and overall good solid growth.

Cheers


Graeme



----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Wednesday, May 14, 2003 6:15 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] WRI ,PGG ,WKL ,Allied Farmers


> Hi Mike,
>
> >
> >
> > Farmers brace for rising kiwi
> >
> > 13.05.2003
> > By LIAM DANN
> > The rural sector is steeling itself for further surges in the kiwi
> > dollar, which yesterday hit 58USc for the first time in more than five
> > years.
> >
> > "It looks like it's heading for 60c," said Affco finance manager
> > Robert Gerrie. "We're bracing ourselves for that.
> >
> > "Every cent it moves makes us more uncompetitive."
> >
> > Federated Farmers vice-president Charlie Pedersen said currency woes,
> > combined with drought, left some farmers facing one of their worst
> > years for more than a decade.
> >
> >
>
> Note "some farmers"
>
> >
> >
> > "It's as tough a year as many farmers have ever had to deal with."
> >
> > Only the fact that farmers were coming off two good seasons was
> > buffering the sector from the kind of downturns suffered in the late
> > 1980s and early 1990s, Pedersen said.
> >
> > Meat exporters are being hit harder than dairy farmers.
> >
> >
>
>
> So what we have here is a statement that things are going to get very
> tough for meat processors.
>
> Yet the header on this thread refers to all the listed farm supply
> companies.    Now here is a question for you Mike and all the other
> rural doubters.
>
> If next year is going to be tougher for farmers than the last two, and I
> don't deny that it will be, then how cheap does the share price of WRI,
> PGG, WKL and Allied Farmers need to get to reflect this?
>
> Would you not buy into this sector at all?   In other words WRI at say
> 5c, would still be too expensive for you?   Or do you think the price of
> WRI should halve to say 55c before you would be interested?   What
> do you think is a reasonable price for WRI in the circumstances you
> have outlined?   Well?
>
> SNOOPY
>
> discl: hold WRI
>
> --
> Message sent by Snoopy
> on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
> ----------------------------------
> "You can tell me I'm wrong twice,
> but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
>
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>



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