Forum Archive Index - March 2003

[Robin Benson <rob@hammerheadmedia.co.uk>]

There's an old saw that goes something like "If tou want to get rich, 
you son of a bîtch, I'll tell you what to do. Never sit down with a 
tear or a frown and paddle your own canoe". Pretty much sums it up I 
think, except I'd add that it's good to listen to a range of views 
before starting to paddle.

I'm confused MacDunk. On the one hand you're telling us to use 
commonsense and take what others say with a truckload of Siberian salt, 
and then you outline the universe according to MacDunk. What yardstick 
are we supposed to use to measure that against? You say a lot about 
winners and losers in the market, but then make a nil disclosure. Does 
that mean your money is in the bank, waiting for the Iraq situation to 
find some sort of direction (you wouldn't be alone). Also, you make 
reference to people laying on the "bullshît". I must admit, I haven't 
detected, for the most part, anybody here seriously intent on deceiving 
anybody. Most people make disclosures following their postings if they 
discuss specific stocks.

If you know anything about statistics, you'll know that collecting 18% 
on a single  share could be quite easily the result of throwing a dart 
at a board. Sustained results of 10%+pa, however, have my admiration.

3G in UK (and beyond) - general observations.

I note that here in the UK the telcos are ramping up their 
picture-messaging advertising bigtime, and 3G, a Hutchison-Whampoa 
venture, are looking for a billion pounds of investment in the UK 
infrastructure, so clearly they're looking to take a punt but share 
some of the heat. They have shown themselves to be players who do their 
sums very carefully before stepping into a sector, and are looking like 
their timing is second to none. Observers of the telco sector might 
note that H-W sold out of Orange not quite at the top of the tech 
bubble but not too far off, and have signalled through their 3G 
activity that they want a slice of the telco action again. This of 
course against the background of some 18 billion pounds paid by Orange, 
Vodaphone, etc., to the UK government for 3G licenses. It's going to be 
an interesting next few years.

Anybody remember WAP?

Cheers

Robin

On Tuesday, Mar 11, 2003, at 02:57 Europe/London, Duncan MacGregor 
wrote:

> The bear market seems to bring out lots of people looking for the 
> magic button to press on the computer to tell them, when, how or where 
> to invest.  Take it from someone who has been there, done that it does 
> not exist.  Nothing beats common sense, its the only thing that will 
> beat the market.  Its pointless looking at mathematical systems, and 
> charts as the only indicator of what or when to buy or sell, its only 
> an indicator to assist, and should be used as such.   Chartists if 
> they are honest, are inclined to buy to late, an sell to late, but 
> hold there own stamping out the middle ground.   We are in a down turn 
> in the market where a chartist if they were honest should have sold up 
> by now.  That is why I tried to bait them to see what cards they were 
> holding.   Needless to say all you get back is big words, and told how 
> great the system is, to which I say rubbish.  I use charts to see 
> where a share has been, and if its still downtrending, which is a 
> usefull tool to use.  What fascinates me is they dont appear to use 
> charts on market sectors where charts work best of all.  ( Example) 
> The farming sector is in a great down trend, and all the companies 
> good and bad in that sector are destined for a trip south.  
> Predictions is what interests me and why you think that way so I will 
> start the ball rolling and give a couple out at the start myself.   
> SCL have been trading at the same price range for ages have now 
> started up in a new direction with great cash flow.   I think will be 
> one to come good.   They will be the largest hire company in nz.  
> Owens was dopey enough to sell hirepool the only thing that made them 
> look good to SCL( its still to be finalised) which is a great cashflow 
> business so along with HIREQUIP they look pretty safe to me.   The 
> other company I predict will beat the market is KIP I made 18pc on 
> them pa and only sold out because after 3 years at that rate, I 
> thought I might do better elsewhere.   To new investors I say, you 
> probably know more than the people trying to bullshit you, so take it 
> easy dont worry about small mistakes, the big ones come if you beleive 
> the people you think should know better.  I must repeat if you want to 
> rubbish some ones views tell us all your predictions then we can 
> all rubbish back.        CHEERS MACDUNK
> discl nil
> wet days are great


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