Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi michael,

>
>
>It seems increasingly likely to me that at some time or other the
>U.S. is going to invade Iraq. Isn't it reasonable to assume that
>when this happens there will be a sharp drop in the value of
>sharemarkets globally 
>
>

Have you been paying attention?   Are the world markets higher or 
lower than they were, say, six months ago?

>
>- probably not a sharp drop like September 11
> given that it won't be a surprise but some kind of significant
> correction 
>
>

Why would the market make a correction, if it was not a surprise?

>
>Doesn't it make sense, then, right at this time,
> to be cashed up on the sidelines waiting for this to happen?
>

It always makes sense to have some cash available to take advantage 
of *unexpected* events.

>
> Why buy shares now and watch the market spike downwards when an
> invasion happens?  
>

There's an old investment saying:

"Sell on the rumour, buy on the fact" (with bad news)

I think you will find that if the USA invaded Iraq tomorrow, the 
market would spike upwards almost immediately, and gold will plunge 
in value.  

SNOOPY

---------------------------------
Message sent by Snoopy 
e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
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"Stay on the upside of the downside, 
Anticipate the anticipation!"



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