Forum Archive Index - February 2003

[Jefley Aitken <jefley@xtra.co.nz>]

Hello Michael and Robin
The idea of cashing up at least something is a good one in face of US 
invasion/bombing threats, imho.  But I don't think the war will be the 
major factor in market drops -- there has traditionally been a fairly quick 
recovery after the onset of war.

But the reactions of Islamic fanatics will cause major chaos if even small 
individual terrorist strikes occur in the US.  The White House doesn't seem 
to realise that its plans are considered unjustified by many (was it 70% of 
NZers?) in the West, and that if terrorism is an issue, they are barking up 
the wrong tree -- which must totally infuriate most Arabs/Moslems.

I reckon Pakistan with its boasted about nuclear arsenal is extremely 
unstable, the current government thoroughly unloved, and the possibility of 
a coup/civil war quite likely when its extremely numerous anti-US 
fundamentalists react against the war.  The US has a record of getting 
involved and being unable to extricate itself in a timely manner with the 
job well concluded.  Dragged out conflicts are not good for markets, except 
for stocks directly relevant to the war effort.

Further, the US /UK markets have not been thriving lately.  I don't know 
whether this is because of their own mismanagement and transgressions, or 
whether Arab/Islamic money is being pulled out.  Either way, a little 
judicious profit-taking/cash accumulating seems a good thing.

Should all turn to custard, you'll have money on hand to take new 
opportunities, and if the US backs off and no sharp drops are prompted, 
you'll have had some easier sleeps knowing that your capital is safe (ish).

All imho, Jefley.

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