Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["Ben Dutton" <bendutton@sharechat.co.nz>]

Hello all,

Without getting into a geopolitical discussion with regards to the
liberation of Iraq, here are a couple thoughts on how the war will affect
the markets.

>From talking to quite a few players and insiders here in Australia it would
appear that the market has already priced in the ramifications of the war.
I've heard from one (very large) broking company that a heck of a lot of
cash is being deposited, but clients aren't using it yet.

This would suggest that investors are waiting for the war and will buy en
masse once the outcome is determined (the speedier the better).  While this
evidence is hardly scientific it is an interesting thought nevertheless.

Thus, I'm inclined to agree with Snoopy on this one - the markets will rise
and gold will fall.  Sorry to say gold fans that I have not been convinced
by your arguments that gold will remain the next big thing for years to
come.  It's been a great ride for the speculators but the party may be about
to end.

Best Regards

Ben Dutton

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jefley Aitken" <jefley@xtra.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Friday, February 21, 2003 7:57 AM
Subject: [sharechat] War against Iraq


> Hello Michael and Robin
> The idea of cashing up at least something is a good one in face of US
> invasion/bombing threats, imho.  But I don't think the war will be the
> major factor in market drops -- there has traditionally been a fairly
quick
> recovery after the onset of war.
>
> But the reactions of Islamic fanatics will cause major chaos if even small
> individual terrorist strikes occur in the US.  The White House doesn't
seem
> to realise that its plans are considered unjustified by many (was it 70%
of
> NZers?) in the West, and that if terrorism is an issue, they are barking
up
> the wrong tree -- which must totally infuriate most Arabs/Moslems.
>
> I reckon Pakistan with its boasted about nuclear arsenal is extremely
> unstable, the current government thoroughly unloved, and the possibility
of
> a coup/civil war quite likely when its extremely numerous anti-US
> fundamentalists react against the war.  The US has a record of getting
> involved and being unable to extricate itself in a timely manner with the
> job well concluded.  Dragged out conflicts are not good for markets,
except
> for stocks directly relevant to the war effort.
>
> Further, the US /UK markets have not been thriving lately.  I don't know
> whether this is because of their own mismanagement and transgressions, or
> whether Arab/Islamic money is being pulled out.  Either way, a little
> judicious profit-taking/cash accumulating seems a good thing.
>
> Should all turn to custard, you'll have money on hand to take new
> opportunities, and if the US backs off and no sharp drops are prompted,
> you'll have had some easier sleeps knowing that your capital is safe
(ish).
>
> All imho, Jefley.
>
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