----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:41
PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] WIND
POWER.
Ralph, Duncan and Michael,
I'm afraid to say that tidal power is so far off the screen in terms of
economic viability it not even worth consideration for anyone with a
commercial interest (which I assume is what we all are).
Windpower is not necessarily uneconomic in all cases but is clearly not
economic in all cases either. Vortec is an interesting case because numerous
people piled in to invest in the company despite it being completely obvious
at the outset that it would all end in tears. The government was even stupid
enough to give them $500,000. Why did this happen? Because naive investors
thought "oh, windpower, that must be good". Never mind the figures, nor the
fact that all Vortec had done was pick up a design that another large and
experienced company had given up on. They had nothing really and wanted an
awful lot for it.
The design and construction of windmills is a bit like say cars. It's not
that we couldn't do it, but what competitive advantages do we have in NZ. Not
many that I can see. We certainly don't have the advantages of economies of
scale or international size R and D budgets or being close to markets, or even
being particularly good at marketing this kind of product. Why don't we cough
up a few million between us and start competing with Ford and Toyota?
In the case of Windflow, Mr Henderson has been trotting this around for
10 years or so. He has a mechanical design feature he developed (pitch/teeter
control of the blades) while working in the UK in the early 90s. It may or may
not be a great feature, but there are other ways to achieve the same ends
(power electronics to correct voltage and current fluctuations). Mr Henderson
is no doubt a well meaning enthusiast, but I won't be investing any
of my hard earned cash with him.
As far as a wind farm in the South Is goes, why would you put it
there?
It has already been pointed out on this board that there is a looming
energy crunch in NZ, caused by a lack of adequate gas reserves that we have
come to rely on. However this is more of a North Is problem that a South Is
one. There is already a differential in electricity costs between North and
South Is. I am happy to predict that North Is electricity prices will go up
significantly but Sth Is prices less so.
A logical person would therefore construct a windfarm where it had the
best economic return, ie the North Is (where most of the windiest sites are
anyway). I am happy to predict that anywhere this is even marginally economic,
one of the government owned generators will be there, for reasons political as
much as economic. Do they want or need Mum and Dad investors, of course not.
Will Windflow get the supply contract. I also predict that this would add an
unacceptable level of risk to any project and a windfarm
developer will buy from a reputable well established supplier, probably
with various export credits and govt subsidies to enable the price to be
cheaper anyway.
The electricity market in NZ has become very complex. It's not a place
for the uninitiated. I don't think Windflow will be able to operate
effectively in that market without attaching themselves somehow to a
bigger established player. One of the problems of windpower is that you have
no control over how much you generate, you're at the mercy of the spot market.
Then there are the disincentives built in to the line charges and transmission
costs.
Can I suggest that if you don't understand all of these issues fairly
clearly, you probably shouldn't be risking your pension fund in this
area.
regards
Hans
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 6:26
PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] WIND
POWER.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 1:20
PM
Subject: [sharechat] WIND
POWER.
|
There must be a reason why they don't build more wind farms to
generate power. From a complete don't know anything about the
subject point of view it must be the cost to set up and run.
It sounds like a great idea but being of inventing inclination( I
know what happened to some of my inventions).It cant be
economical. I feel sure someone out there could
enlighten some of us potential investors with what the problem
is. I am more inclined to think unlocking the gasses in
water will end up the power source of the future for all forms of
energy requirements. I always had the Idea that energy pods would
work. A large tube like a jet engine anchored in rivers,
mouths of harbours etc. could be out of sight under
water with a line to the shore. I had better leave all that to
someone else I have enough on the bench as it is. Trust
power have a wind farm in victoria oz, any one know the economics of
that. I feel very sure it would be of great interest to us all
If someone in the business could post a
reply.
CHEERS MACDUNK |
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