Forum Archive Index - January 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi winner69,
 
> 
>You mentioned Telecom and said that they might surprise this year
>and mention the launch of 3G with Hutchison in Australia.
> 
>The AFR reported that Hutchison's Hong Kong-based parent could
>conceivably abandon its 3G plans if growth in the UK and Italy
>markets do not materialise as expected.
> 
>What impact do you think this will have on Telecom if it eventuates?
> 

Hmmm, I'm not really sure I'm qualified to answer that!  What was it 
that Warren said about only investing in businesses you understand?

When I made my major investment in Telecom I *thought* I understood 
it.  Now I'm not so sure!  It looks like internet has reached 
some kind of ceiling, at least in terms of telco profitability.  So 
whether this golden goose is simply taking a breather or is 
permanently out to lunch I cannot say!

Personally I think this 3G phone thing is madness, with hundreds of 
millions of dollars being poured into something where demand is 
totally unproven.  Still, even our own 'Dad' on this forum Ben seems 
to be getting into it, with the mobile share price text messaging 
service.  So if this application can have merit, why not others?  It 
would be interesting to get a comment from Ben on the progress of his 
initiative if he can do so without giving away commercially sensitive 
information!

I was amazed that on my two day sortie to the skifields this year to 
see a teenager call up the text ski report on their mobile phone.  
It didn't matter that the same thing was sitting on the bed and 
breakfast noticeboard in printed out fax form.  They called it up by 
mobile anyway.   I don't claim to be a great student of human 
behaviour at the best of times, but as far as 3G phone use goes I 
think I'm totally off the wavelength.  Perhaps it has something to do 
with the fact that I'm a mobile phone hold-out!

If Hutcheson 3G is delayed, I can only see it being good for Telecom, 
at least in cash flow terms this year.  The problem is that AAPT will 
lose its first mover impetus, which could be costly in the long run.

Closer to home we have the 027 (2.5G)/025 thing.  It seems NZers are 
slowly moving to 027, but I don't understand the full implications of 
this.  I know the pricing on the 027 plans is more favourable, but I 
presume this is an artificial marketing strategy not related to cost. 
What happens to all those 025 repeaters if/when 025 network 
usage drops below a critical level?  Can this technology be recycled 
to be used with 027, or are we looking at another huge capital write 
off for Telecom?  Any 3G phone gurus out there that can answer these 
questions and give us more insight?

SNOOPY





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