Forum Archive Index - December 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Lazyhaggis,

>
>
>I've just read the report "Every Mushroom Cloud has a Gold Lining"
>which paints an intriguing picture, and is a bit of an eye opener
>considering the way the world is heading right now.
> 
>The report is at http://www.fairshare.co.nz/report15.html
> 
>It's well worth reading.
> 
> 

So 'fairshare' has joined the gold club?  I have no doubt that at 
some stage in the future people may get a good return out of gold 
shares.  The question is in the timing.  People having been pushing 
gold heavily since the tech wreck.

The problem with this strategy is not that it is totally wrong.  The 
problem is the huge opportunity cost that happens as a result of 
sitting on the sidelines, or investing in a non productive asset 
like gold.  If I had sold my sharechat 'stockguru' portfolio at the 
start of 1999 I would have missed cumulative gains of the order of 
30-40%.  There are always reasons not to invest.  Frankly to suggest 
that people sell their investment in SKC because some terroist might 
blow up the Sky tower is just plain silly.

But when investors are gripped with fear they do silly things.  It's 
the flipside of the tech bubble where we had people on this very 
forum suggesting we get into ITC quick because it will never be under 
$1 again.  Personally I lost nothing in the tech wreck because I 
refused to get involved in such silliness.  Likewise, I'll be 
continuing to hold my shares in SKC (as part of a balanced 
portfolio), which in relation to its potential, is probably the 
cheapest it has been for months, maybe even years!   

To be a successful investor you must be able to filter the real 
likely potential from the emotional possible potential.   And two of 
the most powerful emotions are greed and fear.

SNOOPY

discl: no gold






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