Forum Archive Index - December 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Hans,

> 
>Bear in mind that Project Aqua is
> 
>a) far from a reality,
>b) at least 10 years from completion, and
>c) in the wrong island.
> 
>We may see a number of gas discoveries in the next 2-3 years, but
>most of them will be tiny in comparision to Maui. Pretty risky to
>assume a big field will be found tomorrow. A strategic investor
>would at least take this issue into account, acknowledging the
>outcome is uncertain at best.
>
>

Sure, but it is not necessary to fined a gas field as big as Maui.  A 
number of smaller fields will do.  In fact I think the future of 
power generation in New Zealand will lie in many more small 
generators coming on line, rather than the grandiose projects we 
have seen in the past.

>
> 
>The value issue for NCH is that they have been buying gas
>significantly cheaper than their competitors, through having paid
>the Crown a capital sum for the privilege. 
>
>

I must admit to not following NCH all that closely.  Can you give us 
some background as to how when and why this significantly 
advantageous contract that NCH has came about?

>
> 
>Your point about the trees is valid, but I guess FFS investors would
>hope the trees are worth more than firewood. 
>
>

Well it wasn't meant to be taken too seriously.  I trust you saw the 
smilie!

>
> Most primary processing
> uses energy so costs will increase.
> 
> NZ Steel at Glenbrook. If it was marginal with cheap 
> energy, what will it be like with higher costs amid 
> a worldwide glut of steel production capability?
> 

For the answer to that keep an eye out for the final installment of 
my steel industry soap opera, where I will be looking in detail at 
the prospects of BHP Steel, owner of NZ Steel.

SNOOPY



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