Forum Archive Index - June 2002

["Nick Kearney" <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz>]

Touche Steven.  As I've said before.......it's like RAchel's hair.  It won't
happen overnight but it will happen!

nk
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steven Tong" <soarer2@xtra.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Saturday, June 15, 2002 8:38 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Dont underestimate the dynamism of the U S economy
Steven


> Lindley,
>
>
> Dow off 240 on opening bell, closes roughly 28 points down, wheres the
> reasoning /  logic for that ? ( I'm sure Wall Street will have the perfect
> explanation )
>
> As to your questions, the main reason why I think US markets will fall  is
> because the American consumer will eventually slow, recent reports are
> backing this up.
> Their spending has been fuelled by an inflated stock market and booming
> house prices ( wealth effect ). This is starting to crumble and with this
> will come major reductions in spending   Their debt levels are
unsustainable
> and eventually they will default on debt, similar to Argentina and shortly
> Brazil, although this is public debt.
>
> I have only ever said Gold is a good short / medium term bet, I realise it
> won't go up forever and will eventually find its equilibrium.
>
> These are only my opinions, would hate to think I have offended anyone,as
I
> understood this was an open forum.
>
>
> Regards
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Lindley Smith" <lindleysmith@bigfoot.com>
> To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Sent: Saturday, June 15, 2002 3:27 AM
> Subject: Re: [sharechat] Dont underestimate the dynamism of the U S
economy
> Steven
>
>
> > Where's the analysis/reasoning/logic to back up those statements?
> >
> > I'll agree that the NASDAQ was a bubble.
> >
> > Here's one for you to think about and comment on.
> >
> > As I see it, gold like all the other metals/minerals has a falling cost
of
> > production. In the long term the price of gold will tend to track the
cost
> > of production. Any 'variation' from that trend could losely be termed a
> > 'bubble'. Therefore gold IS in a bubble. Has it just started, how long
> will
> > it continue for, has it popped already?
> >
> > Now back to the DOW, and where it is going. Has anyone got a graph of
the
> > DOW going back . . . forever? I'd be interested to see a long term
> technical
> > analysis of it showing what it's level could be if it had followed long
> term
> > historical patterns in the last 10-20 yrs.
> >
> > I was looking at the FTSE the other day, and the few companies that I
> > glanced at all had reasonable PEs (10-15), so maybe it is at a
reasonable
> > level.
> >
> > Here's another one. Why do all indices weight their components based on
> the
> > size of the company? Personally I'd prefer indicies that weren't
weighted.
> >
> >
> > > Just watched the opening bell on Wall Street, we are in freefall. Hope
> > > everybody dumped their  international share based mutual funds this
> week.
> > > The US  market
> > > will continue to fall and 4000 - 6000 on the DOW is very likely.
> > >
> > >
> > > Gold is about to explode, is gold in a bubble ? after 20 years in a
bear
> > > market it has risen form $ 255 to $320. This is not a bubble, the
NASDAQ
> > at
> > > 5000 was a bubble.
> > >
> > > Unhedged Gold and Silver producers will expode, its only a matter of
> time.
> > > The gold bullion banks are fighting the trend, they can only
manipulate
> > for
> > > so long.
> > > When gold hits $354 an ounce, the derivatives market will implode.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Steven Tong wrote;
> > > > >
> > > > > "There will BE NO RECOVERY IN US EQUITIES THIS YEAR"
> > > > >
> > > > > I recall another stumble of the U S economy. I refer to the
savings
> &
> > > loan
> > > > > fiasco.
> > > > >
> > > > > A rash of unwise lending by small community banks called savings &
> > loan
> > > > banks
> > > > > had threatened a bust the amounting to what looked like several
> > > telephone
> > > > > numbers strung together.
> > > > >
> > > > > The U S congress took over these banks and ruthlessly liquidated
> them.
> > > > Thanks
> > > > > to an economic recovery they were able to sell off these assets. I
> > > cannot
> > > > > recall exactly, but the net result was a small gain or loss for
the
> U
> > S
> > > > > taxpayer.
> > > > >
> > > > > My point is that the U S was able to take decisive corrective
action
> > to
> > > > > ensure stability and recover.
> > > > >
> > > > > If there is a melt down on Wall Street I guess we will see the
same
> > > thing.
> > > > >
> > > > > The DOW @ 20,000 in 2006?
> > > > >
> > > > > Boop-doop-de-do Marilyn
> > > > >
> > > > > Short on diamonds, long on optimism
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
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