Forum Archive Index - June 2002

["Steven Tong" <soarer2@xtra.co.nz>]

Lindley,


Dow off 240 on opening bell, closes roughly 28 points down, wheres the
reasoning /  logic for that ? ( I'm sure Wall Street will have the perfect
explanation )

As to your questions, the main reason why I think US markets will fall  is
because the American consumer will eventually slow, recent reports are
backing this up.
Their spending has been fuelled by an inflated stock market and booming
house prices ( wealth effect ). This is starting to crumble and with this
will come major reductions in spending   Their debt levels are unsustainable
and eventually they will default on debt, similar to Argentina and shortly
Brazil, although this is public debt.

I have only ever said Gold is a good short / medium term bet, I realise it
won't go up forever and will eventually find its equilibrium.

These are only my opinions, would hate to think I have offended anyone,as I
understood this was an open forum.


Regards






----- Original Message -----
From: "Lindley Smith" <lindleysmith@bigfoot.com>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Saturday, June 15, 2002 3:27 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Dont underestimate the dynamism of the U S economy
Steven


> Where's the analysis/reasoning/logic to back up those statements?
>
> I'll agree that the NASDAQ was a bubble.
>
> Here's one for you to think about and comment on.
>
> As I see it, gold like all the other metals/minerals has a falling cost of
> production. In the long term the price of gold will tend to track the cost
> of production. Any 'variation' from that trend could losely be termed a
> 'bubble'. Therefore gold IS in a bubble. Has it just started, how long
will
> it continue for, has it popped already?
>
> Now back to the DOW, and where it is going. Has anyone got a graph of the
> DOW going back . . . forever? I'd be interested to see a long term
technical
> analysis of it showing what it's level could be if it had followed long
term
> historical patterns in the last 10-20 yrs.
>
> I was looking at the FTSE the other day, and the few companies that I
> glanced at all had reasonable PEs (10-15), so maybe it is at a reasonable
> level.
>
> Here's another one. Why do all indices weight their components based on
the
> size of the company? Personally I'd prefer indicies that weren't weighted.
>
>
> > Just watched the opening bell on Wall Street, we are in freefall. Hope
> > everybody dumped their  international share based mutual funds this
week.
> > The US  market
> > will continue to fall and 4000 - 6000 on the DOW is very likely.
> >
> >
> > Gold is about to explode, is gold in a bubble ? after 20 years in a bear
> > market it has risen form $ 255 to $320. This is not a bubble, the NASDAQ
> at
> > 5000 was a bubble.
> >
> > Unhedged Gold and Silver producers will expode, its only a matter of
time.
> > The gold bullion banks are fighting the trend, they can only manipulate
> for
> > so long.
> > When gold hits $354 an ounce, the derivatives market will implode.
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Steven Tong wrote;
> > > >
> > > > "There will BE NO RECOVERY IN US EQUITIES THIS YEAR"
> > > >
> > > > I recall another stumble of the U S economy. I refer to the savings
&
> > loan
> > > > fiasco.
> > > >
> > > > A rash of unwise lending by small community banks called savings &
> loan
> > > banks
> > > > had threatened a bust the amounting to what looked like several
> > telephone
> > > > numbers strung together.
> > > >
> > > > The U S congress took over these banks and ruthlessly liquidated
them.
> > > Thanks
> > > > to an economic recovery they were able to sell off these assets. I
> > cannot
> > > > recall exactly, but the net result was a small gain or loss for the
U
> S
> > > > taxpayer.
> > > >
> > > > My point is that the U S was able to take decisive corrective action
> to
> > > > ensure stability and recover.
> > > >
> > > > If there is a melt down on Wall Street I guess we will see the same
> > thing.
> > > >
> > > > The DOW @ 20,000 in 2006?
> > > >
> > > > Boop-doop-de-do Marilyn
> > > >
> > > > Short on diamonds, long on optimism
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
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> >
> >
> >
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