Forum Archive Index - June 2002

[nickk@quicksilver.net.nz]

John

No I don't follow OTR.

They're are too many Gold/Silver stocks across the tassy to concentrate on
them all.

I can't comment on their hedging.  You may well be right.  The two I
mentioned MMN & DIO are two of the smaller ones so that is probably proof
of no hedging.  

Cheers

Nk

BTW......got this off Bloomberg.  Typical of the problems currently.

Japan's Economy Grew 1.4% in 1st Qtr as Exports Rose (Update5)
By Ann Saphir with reporting by Yoshiko Matsushita and Michael Tsang


Tokyo, June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew last quarter for the
first time in a year as exports rose. Stocks and the yen fell, while bonds
rose as a drop in business investment reinforced expectations that the
rebound won't last. 

Gross domestic product rose 1.4 percent, compared with economists'
expectations of 1.1 percent growth and a decline of 1.2 percent in the
fourth quarter. 

Exports rose at the fastest pace in 21 years as companies such as Hitachi
Ltd. shipped more chips and flat-panel computer monitors abroad. Business
investment fell and consumer spending slowed, prompting economists to
repeat forecasts that the economy would shrink again in the second quarter.

``Right now it's difficult to see how the Japanese economy can support
itself,'' said Hajime Yagi, who helps manage $1 billion in Japanese
equities at Meiji Dresdner Asset Management Co. ``Our recovery depends
solely on a recovery in the U.S. since exports are driving growth.'' 

The Nikkei 225 stock average fell 1.7 percent after Intel Corp. reduced its
sales forecast, suggesting that demand for personal computer makers has yet
to recover. Bond futures rose to a six-month high, and the yen weakened as
much as 0.3 percent. 

>From a year earlier, Japan's economy shrank 1.6 percent in the first
quarter. In the fiscal year ended March 31, the economy shrank 1.3 percent,
more than the government's target of a 1 percent contraction. 

``The economy is still in a severe condition, but it has already bottomed
out,'' Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Heizo Takenaka said. ``How much
business investment we will see this year will be the key.'' 

Business Investment 

Spending on factories and equipment fell 3.2 percent in the first quarter
after dropping 12 percent in the fourth as companies such as Fujitsu Ltd.
slashed costs after record losses last year. 

While companies expect profits to rise this year as they cut costs and
increase overseas sales, that doesn't mean they'll spend more on equipment
right away. 

``We can't expect capital spending to pick up at all this year,'' said
Minako Iida, an economist at Deutsche Securities. 

Net exports -- exports minus imports -- added 0.7 percentage point to GDP
growth in the quarter as shipments jumped 6.4 percent, led by chips, cars
and steel. 

The export surge may already be subsiding as growth cools in the U.S.,
Japan's biggest overseas market. Japanese exports grew in April at the
slowest pace this year as U.S. demand slipped. 

``We don't think the economic recovery is strong at this point,'' said
Yukiaki Ina, a Hitachi spokesman, who said domestic sales aren't
recovering. ``At best, we'd see some brightness at the end of this fiscal
year.'' 

Consumers 

Growth in consumer spending, which makes up 55 percent of the economy,
slowed to 1.6 percent last quarter from 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter
as Japanese dipped into savings to supplement falling income. 

Demand may slow further. The economy shed 430,000 jobs in April as
manufacturers tried to cut costs and restore profitability. Unemployment
was unchanged at 5.2 percent, near a record high, because an even larger
number of people stopped looking for work. 

Banks' efforts to clear trillions of yen in bad loans may curb consumer
spending by forcing more companies out of business and vaporizing jobs,
economists say. 

Fujiki Komuten Co., a construction company that had more than 1,000
employees a year ago, filed for bankruptcy this week after UFJ Bank Ltd.
and other lenders backed out of an agreement to swap debt for equity. 

While Daiei Inc., Japan's third-largest retailer, expects to return to
profit this year, the company will likely use that money to pay down 1.7
trillion yen in debt rather than invest in new equipment. Construction
companies such as Kajima Corp. may do the same. 

Banking Problems 

Three months of economic growth won't fix Japan's real problems, economists
say. Government debt is approaching 140 percent of gross domestic product,
falling prices are undermining company profits and bad debts are starving
the economy of credit. 

``The banking system still doesn't work, you have the corporate debt
problems and capital spending is falling,'' said Takahira Ogawa, head of
Asian sovereign debt ratings for Standard and Poor's, which lowered its
rating on Japan's yen-denominated bonds to a fourth-ranking ``AA-'' in
April. ``We don't think this economic recovery is sustainable.'' 


John Wedde writes:

> Hi Nick,
> Do you follow Otter at all?
> I may be mistaken but I think they cleared up most of their hedges at
> the time GPG took an interest in them.
> Smaller gold exploration coys are also unlikely to have any hedges I
> would have thought.
> Any other comments welcomed. 
> Cheers,
> John
> 
> >>> nickk@quicksilver.net.nz Friday, 7 June 2002 4:04:32 p.m. >>>
> 
> Athol
> 
> You are certainly right when you say this "Gold will go higher because
> there is no where for the world of money to be parked at this time of
> falling stocks"
> 
> When the DOW was going thru the roof Gold was plumetting because the
> DOW
> was the place to go with your money.  With the DOW very shaky, the
> Nikkei
> similarly, and economic situations expected to worsen, Gold will be
> the
> safe haven.
> 
> From my limited information, I believe MMN & DIO aren't hedged. 
> However,
> don't quote me on it.  Good luck...I like Gold & Silver in the next 12
> months!
> 
> NK
> 
>   ryanrite writes:
> 
> > Do you have any Aussie stocks that are not hedged in mind?
> > Gold will go higher because there is no where for the world of money
> to be
> > parked at this time of falling stocks
> > Athol
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Steven Tong" <soarer2@xtra.co.nz>
> > To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> > Sent: Friday, June 07, 2002 7:06 AM
> > Subject: [sharechat] GOLD / SILVER
> > 
> > 
> > > After this weeks manipulation by the gold cartel to force the price
> of
> > gold
> > > down, could not resist getting back into Aussie gold   / silver
> stocks
> > > yesterday.
> > >
> > > Change of tack this time, small cap unhedged plays. Think this is
> were we
> > > will get the most leverage to the rising gold / silver price.
> > >
> > >
> > > The gold bullion banks  are telling the world via their analysts
> that gold
> > > is in a bubble, yet they are building their postitions in gold
> miners all
> > > over the world, the latest a small explorer in Norway.
> > >
> > > The Dow is capitulating, the total market cap of all gold mining
> stocks is
> > > equivalent to 330 points on the Dow. A  small shift in sentiment
> towards
> > > Gold and its easy to see what could happen.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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