Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["Lindley Smith" <lindleysmith@bigfoot.com>]

Geoff


> Hi Lindley,
> farming has been good over the last 2 years and we've had good seasons
> low interest rates low dollar higher world prices and our F&M free status.

Everything was in harmony for once, when was the last time? Fifties/Sixties?

> This is not the norm... Murphy's law usually applies I have been thru good
> old rogernomics $13 lambs 25% interest rates high dollar and 4 years of
> drought... and I still am an optimist for NZ agriculture.... if we get our
> thinking right........ The big problem that the US is the rock and hard
> place scenario... If the US raises interest rates to stop the fall in
their
> $ people will stop spending and that will crash the Dow.If they don't the

Is the need for an appropriately valued USD as important to the US as it is
to us (exports/imports being a relatively smaller part of their economy)?

> overseas investors not liking low rates and currency risk will pull their
> money out and crash the Dow..Same in reverse for NZ our undervalued $
> potential for inflation RB guidance that interest rates will rise hot
money
> moves in and up goes the$NZ .... Imho this play will continues until the
Yen
> reaches 111 to the $US then I expect to see massive intervention by US
and

Did Japan do a bit this/last week? I believe Japan are concerned that their
currency doesn't appreciate too much

> Japanese govts.. If the US were expecting a massive fall in their currency
> then why would they increase their farm support subsidies?

I don't think the currency had anything to do with the decision. It's just
that there were enough farmers hassling the politicians. The rest of the
populace are happy in the belief that they won't have to eat BSE infected
animals from overseas, or animals that have been feed grass (because that
might have bugs in it). Europe is the same. So much for free trade.

> I have recently bought more of grd mainly because of their future
expansion
> they pay a dividend and when all this extra production comes on stream our
$
> will crash and they will make a fortune...

Quite a mixture of investments, wonder if they'll be taken over and have
their gold, construction and renewables sold off?

> The optimist again
>
> Geoff

The cynic still.

Lindley

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/