Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["Geoff Brown" <brownz@xtra.co.nz>]

Hi Lindley,
farming has been good over the last 2 years and we've had good seasons
low interest rates low dollar higher world prices and our F&M free status.
This is not the norm... Murphy's law usually applies I have been thru good
old rogernomics $13 lambs 25% interest rates high dollar and 4 years of
drought... and I still am an optimist for NZ agriculture.... if we get our
thinking right........ The big problem that the US is the rock and hard
place scenario... If the US raises interest rates to stop the fall in their
$ people will stop spending and that will crash the Dow.If they don't the
overseas investors not liking low rates and currency risk will pull their
money out and crash the Dow..Same in reverse for NZ our undervalued $
potential for inflation RB guidance that interest rates will rise hot money
moves in and up goes the$NZ .... Imho this play will continues until the Yen
reaches 111 to the $US then I expect to see massive intervention by US  and
Japanese govts.. If the US were expecting a massive fall in their currency
then why would they increase their farm support subsidies?
I have recently bought more of grd mainly because of their future expansion
they pay a dividend and when all this extra production comes on stream our $
will crash and they will make a fortune...
The optimist again

Geoff


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