Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["Lindley Smith" <lindleysmith@bigfoot.com>]

Geoff

> Hi Lindley,
>
> I recently had a punt or hedge on the $NZ I took this out over a year ago
at
> .41US$ this cover expired at the end of March and I lost $6000..........
If
> it had expired now  I would have made $10 000 but as a farmer I  have made
> much more for the $ being low over this period.

>From one or two stories I've read $6000 is your spare change from the last
year or so, has it been that good?

>
> Now  imho I think in the short period the $NZ will continue to rise till
> early next year but longer out I am pretty sure NZ will become the next
> Argentina with the potential of the currency falling 30-50% as the crash
in
> commodity prices continue......... The rats are starting to leave the
> sinking ship with Brash resigning and all the resignations from
fronterra..

Seems as though the NZD is where lots of traders are putting some of their
money. No doubt they will all leave at some stage driving the dollar down
again.

>
> Did you know that world dairy prices are at a twenty year low?
>  Beef prices in the states have crashed....

Do you mean in USD terms?

Did prices really go up much in the last year, or was it mainly the NZD
falling that caused it?

Do you think many kiwis knew/cared that their NZD investments dropped in
value by 1/4 (ignoring share price growth/house inflation) against the TWI
in the last 5 years?

I know there must be stats out there somewhere about prices, but I've only
been able to find the combined ANZ commodity index which doesn't look too
bad. Is there a long-term trend downwards in commodity prices for NZ goods?
Would it then be safe to assume the NZD will follow this trend unless we
suddenly all turn into bio-tech/IT gurus.

>
> I have been putting most of my spare cash into Gold stocks and so far have
> had a dream run ... but that's another story

My one gold experience was with Macraes. I first got hit by a drop in gold
prices and sold some at a loss, then the next gold price drop saw them taken
over by GRD at a low price. And I ain't seen much happening to them since.
May be next time.

Not that I'm bitter and twisted about gold, but could you have achieved the
same result by taking out a sell option on the USD? Isn't that a rough
approximation of what has happened? People have sold USD and bought gold?

Just winding you up.

>
> Geoff
>
>
>
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