Forum Archive Index - April 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Gerry,

I know you have been a bit quiet on this forum of late, but it is 
good to see you are still 'working at the coal face', and this time 
literally!


> 
> 
> Forecasted results, financial year ending 31 Dec. 2002:
> 
> 1. Data.
> Current price: Say 60 cents.
> Shares up to 1 May 83 mill. For the remainder of year: 153 mill.
> Mean weighted number of shares: 130 mill.
> 
> >From "Longwall News": Profit $13 mill.
> (Checked other sources, profit data accepted)
> -------------------------------------------------------------------
> ---- 2. Statistics: 2.1 Expected outcomes: E/S: 10 cents. Current
> P/E: 6 Expected P/E on 31/12/02: 9 Price on 31/12/02: 90 cents, or
> an increase of 50% over 8 months (75% on annual basis, 1 May is the
> starting point).
>
>
>


It was interesting to see Phaedrus's chart on AUO and line it up 
against your fundamental analysis above.  According to Phaedrus's 
chart the share price got as low as 25c in October 2001, which would 
have indicated a P/E of 3 on prospective End of year 2001 earnings 
 at that time.   

Now I tend to favour low P/E companies over high 
ones, but a P/E of 3?   That to me spells out a distressed company.   
What on earth (or under earth?) happened to allow the P/E to go so 
low?   That would be the most important question to ask if I myself 
was ever going to invest in such a company.

SNOOPY



---------------------------------
Message sent by Snoopy 
e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
----------------------------------
"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
but that still only makes me wrong once."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/