Forum Archive Index - April 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

donkeyb1 wrote:
>
>Snoopy wrote: 
>
>
>>I wonder if the shareholders of AAPT would have 
>>accepted a scrip bid?
>
>i think so - the yanks were in the process of getting out 
>- they obviously believe the scrip was overvalued.
>
>


If the yanks believed the TEL shares were desperately overvalued 
they would have sold them already.   I know they are trying to exit, 
but not at any price.  How would issuing more shares to someone 
else, help them sell their existing shares?

 
>
>
>i have had exactly the same view for over four
>years. the view is - technology and cheap capital will drive 
>the commoditisation of data (including voice). The 
>cost of that data is low. the price tel can command  
>for that data will be low, due to new entrants. 
>
>


So you think others are going to be able to fund the equipment 
needed for new technology, cheaper than Telecom can? Do you see any 
other new entants making a serious dent in the mobile market, the 
data market?  I assume you don't see anyone else building a 
nationwide network to compete with Telecom?  Can anyone else compete 
in all the markets that Telecom can?   Possibly TelstraClear in 
association with Vodaphone might, but that is the sort of muscle it 
would take.


>
>
>I agree xtra may have been worth 12.5% of tel, but it was never 
>worth $2b. apply the porter model to it - its fails almost every 
>test. apply a cashflow model to it, and it still fails. The 
>statement was never reasonable and underlines the poor analysis 
>and understanding that tel has of its own business.
>
>
>


Whereas Telstra were smarter with their acquisition of 
their share of Pacific Century Cyber Works business?


>
>
>the flaw in the aussie strategy. tel have said that they will win a  
>a keystone tenant who essentially pays for the network. tel will 
>then sell the spare capacity to second tier clients. this assumes 
>that the competition for the second teir clients is not as rigorous 
>for the first tier. - which is garbage - all clients will be 
>contested for strongly.
>
>

Are you talking about the AAPT CDMA mobile network in Australia?  
That rollout has already been stopped.

>
>
>tel lost the market leadership thru bad marketing and capital 
>decision making (no roaming, mix of digital and analogue etc). 
> this has put them into a positon where to regain 
>leadership they must develop 2g services market
> - these are services over and above voice that can be offered 
> on the gsm network. 
>
>
>so tel's mistakes led to this value destruction.
>
>

The TEL analogue system was first in the market.   The Vodaphone 
system came on stream later and the coverage of the network took a 
while to get within cooee of Telecom.  There always was (still is?) a 
trade off between clarity (Vodaphone) and coverage (Telecom).   My 
memory is that it wasn't as simple as just replacing the 
Telecom analogue repeaters with digital ones.  I don't think Telecom
switching over to digital was a simple a strategy to implement as you 
seem to imply.

>
>
>so now tel has had to invest money on 
>which it can never expect to earn any "first mover" profit,
> and has had to throw a lot of fresh money in a tight 
>environment to keep up.
>
>


Why don't you think Telecom can extract 'first mover' profit out of 
the 027 network?   Would they have had to spend any less money to 
establish the network if they came in second to the 2G market?


>
>
>I would have expected some discussion of how the company is being
>positions to take advantage of the likely outcomes within the telco
>market. there are several well established likely outcomes to 
>themes 
>-which incidently were around four years ago - see above.
>
>


Ah so you expected her to answer the question *where* will Telecom be 
in 5 years time?  Now that question is answerable.  I don't know 
where you got the sound byte answer that you didn't like.  Gattung 
set the goal to be:
"the best performing customer focused online and communications 
company in Australasia"
Perhaps her answer that 'she doesn't know' simply means that she 
doesn't want to second guess what consumer's might want in five years 
time, but whatever that is she will deliver it?  


SNOOPY







---------------------------------
Message sent by Snoopy 
e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
----------------------------------
"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
but that still only makes me wrong once."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/