Forum Archive Index - April 2002

[hugh webber <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

Maybe I should be allowed to air a dissenting view - I'm famous for it ;-)
Some deeper thoughts there Barry and Kim, rather than just accepting 
the conventional wisdom.
Yes, I used to hold Tel and was even enthusiastic during the tech bubble.
But what we have been witnessing is the commodification of the products
that Tel sells - their sales have come to depend on price - and competition
is hot.
Their ratios aren't too hot either particularly the gross dividend yield % and
the pressures have started to produce some questionable accounting practices
to meet targets.
The South Pacific cable is no longer doing well and they are being nibbled away
at in business urban areas by fibre optic competitors while Tel seems happy
to sit on its copper wires with a bit of a tech assist that won't win in the 
long run.
So, St Theresa is a good CEO. They say.
Is she as good as Rod Dean was?
I recall reading one of their reports when I held them and looking at the 
executives and
thinking hold on; here's a CEO qualified in Pol Sci for God's sake, and their 
Chief Engineer
is qualified in Civil Engineering not Electrical Engineering & & - is this the 
Mad Hatters
Tea Party?
You'll find the brokers all recommend them - because they can't afford not to, 
they're
such a big part of the market that it pays not to offend them.
And you may recall contrarian analyses from the US where analysts looked at the 
brokers top
picks each year over the last few years - and found you'd do better by noting 
them
so as not to pick them yourself.
"They must be cheap at this price" Why? Surely that depends on their future 
performance
not their historical prices.
So while I wish them all the best as they are such a big part of their market - 
I wouldn't
buy them or recommend them.
I can afford not as I'm not a broker ;-)

cheers,
Hugh
----------
From: Barry and Kim VanderHaven <troyvdh@ihug.co.nz>
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Subject: [sharechat] Tel
Date: Tuesday, 2 April 2002 0:05

Dear chatters, could someone please provide any rational as to why one would 
buy, let alone hold
Tel.I should state that I have an inherent distrust of brokers et al and tend 
to look at "the big
picture", i.e. Oz and us.On many occasions I have been tempted to buy ( after 
scaning numerous
items stating that "its an ideal time ", only to find that then it went lower 
!.).I do hold TLS
long term, and given that "they' are still deliberating wether or not to 
totally privatise et al I
am of the opinion that "we aint got no chance ,even with AAPT, to make any 
meaningful dosh".A very
basic summary you thinks ?But heh, does history  indicate that N.Z. companies 
flourish over the
ditch ?  


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