Forum Archive Index - October 2001

[jesse <johne777@hotmail.com>]

Hi all
spglobal.com record p/e's of the s&p indexes weekly. The s&p500 was
28.29 on sep28. Nasdaq p/e is mostly ignored..i cant find a recent
update. Its enough to know its off the charts!....

.....which gives a clue as to the long term direction of that index.
Long term being key as there are plenty who think a return to 1999 is
possible, hence these rallies. Its not going to happen. Look at a
company like Corning (GTW) that laid so much fiber optics in US that it
is estimated only 5% of it is needed to meet demand. So where is their
growth coming from? Nowhere, and the stock is dying.
Most stocks still get pushed up on negative news, like Sun Micro on
Thursday. They said that existing losses would be worse, to close some
plants and lay off 9000.....stock then rallied 6.25%!
When you see one stock's earnings stabalising, like Dell, and the whole
sector rallies, thats nuts. The analysts said Dell is taking share away
from Compaq etc, so the industry as a whole isnt growing, just moving
the chairs around a bit.

The US jobs report on Friday (loss of 200k non farm jobs) was the worst
monthly loss in 10 years. Unemployment stayed at 4.9%, but it's expected
to reach 5.5 quickly as up to 1/2 million jobs may go in coming months
from airlines and tourism sectors.

Job Cuts since September 11, 2001
              ==================================
              Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - 2,300
              America West (AWA) - 2,000
              American Airlines (AMR) - 20,000
              American Trans Air (AMTR) - 1,500
              Applied Materials (AMAT) - 2,000
              Boeing Co. (BA) - 20,000-30,000
              Continental Airlines (CAL) - 12,000
              Crompton Corp. (CK) - 700
              Delta Airlines (DAL) - 13,000
              EMC Corp. (EMC) - 2,000
              ExciteAtHome (ATHM) - 500
              Frontier Airlines (FRNT) - 440
              Hawaiin Airlines (HA) - 430
              Herman Miller (MLHR) - 740
              IKON Office Solutions (IKN) - 2,600
              Lodgian (LOD) - 1,600
              LSI Logic (LSI) - 600
              Mesa Air Group (MESA) - 700
              Mesaba Holdings (MAIR) - 400
              MGM Mirage (MGG) - 6,000
              Midway Airlines 1,700
              Midwest Express (MEH) - 450
              Milacron (MZ) - 750
              Northwest Airlines (NWAC) - 10,000
              Omnicare (OCR) - 460
              Praxair (PX) – 900
              Raytheon Aircraft (RTN) - 750
              Rockwell Automation (ROK) - 750
              Rockwell Collins (COL) - 2,600
              Starwood Hotels (HOT) - 10,200
              Textron (TXT) - 2,500
              U.S. Airways (U) - 11,000
              United Airlines (UAL) - 20,000
              WorldCom (WCOM) – 1000
              Wyndham (WYN) – 1600
              Xerox (XRX) – 1300
              XO Communications (XOXO) - 600

Like stock prices, economic data doesnt move in straight lines, but then
US funds and institutions have an increasingly short term approach to
investing.

Which is why it is the most exciting place to trade, regardless of
direction. Better go. I'm currently short Raytheon, hoping same chart
from Gulf war eventuates.
cheers
jesse


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