Forum Archive Index - October 2001

["G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>]

Readers: Please read the Disclaimer at the end of this post, first.

 

Investors are waiting for the FDA to grant a crucial TNF patent. If it is granted, then the price of PTD could rise past the $A 4

mark. If it is not granted, than the stock could fall from the present $A2.53 to $A 1.50!

 

The question now becomes one of trying to minimize risks: What is the chance of obtaining this crucial patent ? Some say, greater than 70%. I don't know.

 

Suffice to say that if they do get it, PTD will be propelled into the rare circle of biotechs which have plenty of upfront payments and royalties coming in!

 

Its future will then look secure. At the same time, it will then immediately become a critical takeover prospect!

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PTD's web site:

 

This discusses TNF (Tumour Necrosis Factor). This is a pro-inflammatory molecule which plays a role in a wide range of diseases, including Rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's Disease.

The Peptech anti-TNF proteins are used in the treatment of these diseases.

PTD started TNF research in 1988 and the current patent portfolio is attracting attention as these provide entry points for further important developments.

PTD is now waiting on the possible granting of an important US patent, possibly, later in October.
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They also develop Animal Health products.
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Diversys' web site: < www.diversys.co.uk >

Of great interest is PTD's up to 33.6% holding of Diversys, a well known company in Cambridge (UK). This company developed the single domain antibody which is only 10% of the size of a conventional antibody; referring to the relevant patents:

Diversys says: " These Patents are incredibly relevant to anyone creating antibodies, antibody fragments or single domains in a test tube and are therefore of tremendous commercial value to Diversys.

"Single domains represent the basic building blocks of antibodies and it should be possible to string them in many different ways to make a wide variety of products".

" The ability of single domains to bind the active sites of enzymes and receptors may make them particularly useful for blocking viral and bacterial infections as well as for the treatment of many human diseases".

The following quoted comments are from the CEO of PTD, Mr. Stephen Kwik, FCA :

" These antibodies will need smaller dosages and as the present cost of these medications is high, more people could afford to buy these drugs. There is also less wastage".

" This is significant because this smaller antibody can penetrate easier and therefore can be applied as a cream, through slow release direct injection, inhalers and eye-drops."

" For example, ' Remicade' can treat eye disease and we feel that by delivering the single domain TNF antibody with eyedrops would be more effective than with a drip, as is currently the case."

Diversys has been asked by PTD to develop single domain antibodies against TNF; these will become the exclusive property of PTD.

" The TNF alpha drug we would be working on, has a market reach including the treatment of Arthritis, Crohn's Disease, Asthma and many other diseases".

Question: " If this drug will be in the pre-clinical stage by the 2nd quarter of 2002, how long will it take to get it through to commercial viability?"

PTD: " Depending on how 1st stage clinical trials go and generally speaking, we will be looking at commercialisation for royalties within 3 years ( 2004/2005 )".
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PTD also receives ongoing royalty from Centocor and Knoll who were granted a licence for the use of one patent.

Knoll's clinical III trial data of a monoclonal antibody against TNF, drug: " D2E7 " is highly promising. It could reap a solid market share in the inflammation related diseases for Knoll.

This drug is described as the crown jewel of Knoll's pipeline and could achieve peak sales of Euros 1 billion.

PTD will also be looking for royalties from this drug within the next 2 to 3 years.
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It is highly likely that PTD's future income will be from ever increasing royalties streams and also from advanced products developed by them and clinically trialled:

" If we were to take the pre-clinical drug technology to a clinical trials stage, we would be obtaining a double digit royalty ( about 20% )".
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PTD: Financial year ends on Sept. 30. Shares: 146 mill. On 1 April, PTD had $A 35 mill. cash and a sum of $A 6 mill.( before tax ) was later derived from a sale of surplus property! Ongoing royalties keep coming in!

 

Unlike many Biotech companies, PTD's cash resources can fund their own research and would normally not require borrowing  and/or issuing new shares!

 

Their research is *exponentially* speeding up in some very commercial and critical medical disciplines. A lot of this will be done by their up to 33.6% Associate: Diversys.

 

At present, Diversys are developing delivery systems for four new compounds, as specified by PTD. If successful, this will reduce the cost and complexity of antibody drugs. These four drugs will become the exclusive property of PTD.

 

There is a large market for anti-TNF pharmaceuticals now.
Below are comments from " Decision Resources, Inc." which reviews the commercial potential of novel agents in this field:

The TNF-Alpha Inhibitors in therapeutic products: " Etanercept "( Immmunex/Wyeth-Ayerst's Enbrel ), " Infliximab " ( Centocor/ Johnson@ Johnson's Remicade ) being used in the rheumatoid arthritis ( RA ) and inflammatory bowel disease( IBD).

They predict that by 2010 approx. 37% of the anti-TNF market place will be attributed to sales in novel indications.

Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis trials are now in late-stage clinical development and the TNF inhibitor will be the principal driver of growth in this market according to forecasts.

Congestive Heart Failure ( CHF) This seems to be associated with high levels of TNF bio activity. This requires further study.

Sepsis: A modest but definite beneficial effect by application of a refined anti- TNF product " Afelimomab " ( Knoll/Abbott's Segard ) in an improved clinical trial design, have been noted.

 

Those are my opinions!

Gerry
Holds PTD and thinks that PTD and Diversys are a perfect combination. 
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Disclaimer: I cannot be held responsible for any omissions, misstatements or any misinterpretations by myself or by any reader, in this post.

This post is not a substitute for the contents of the PTD web site and the reader must go back to that site to obtain the true statements or facts or any other matter pertaining to PTD.

Some content of this post is from Company announcements and from one interview and may not be on the PTD web site.

Readers are not asked to buy, hold or sell the somewhat speculative PTD shares and to do so will be entirely at their own risk.