Forum Archive Index - September 2001

[<nickkearney@xtra.co.nz>]

> Gerry  

I think your comments are spot on.  Mustn't forget the intimidation factor 
arising from the build up of planes, carriers, frigates etc in the gulf.  
Intimidation that won't crack the Afghanis.  

Bush is not an intellect like Clinton yet he realises that this 'campaign' 
cannot be run like any other.  Despite his rhetoric, I expect him to back down 
significantly on his promises.  The markets would probably like a quick 
resolution but they won't get one.  Bush is a determined man.  I expect this to 
last for years but it won't be a war for years.  It will be a systematic 
breakdown of culture, religion, terrorism and factions in the middle east 
achieved through numerous methods.

The average American may expect missiles but they will only see bullets and 
words.  There is no other way for the US to go especially considering the Saudi 
situation.

CHeers for now

NK 

> From: "G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>
> Date: Sun, 23 Sep 2001 20:06:49 +1200
> To: "sharechat.co.nz" <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Subject: [sharechat] Pres. Bush, past Pres. Clinton and will there be a big 
>war?
> 
> Listening to the off -the- cuff statements by President Bush, one gets the 
>impression that unlike his predecessor, he is more emotionally inclined.
> 
> Hearing Clinton talking, one feels that although his impromptu speech may 
>sound ' loose', yet by training and a sharp intellect, every word was in fact 
>measured.
> 
> That is an important distinction, one which favours Bill Clinton in 
>International affairs.
> 
> While Bush has managed to get the public behind him, his speeches have raised 
>the expectations of the man in the street.
> 
> The people expect him to carry out his threats while not being aware of the 
>obstacles ahead.
> 
> Also, the Press reports that an unfortunate choice of words, ie. having a 
>'crusade' is not impressing the moderate follower of Islam but instead 
>provides ammo. to the fundamentalist in the propaganda war!
> 
> There is no doubt that he is a sincere person but by raising tensions, the 
>people will want results!
> 
> What are the chances of success? It is to his credit and promises made to 
>Pakistan that officially, this country supports the US and so do the U 
>Emirates. 
> 
> These two countries and the Saudis recognized the Taliban republic of 
>Afghanistan.
> 
> The U Emirates have decided to break this recognition and that leaves Saudi 
>Arabia with a Moslem population which already does not like the US bases on 
>their soil. 
> 
> Sofar, because of expected problems, the Saudi rulers have decided to stand 
>aside. This could be a problem for the US.
> 
> The Gulf states will have a meeting shortly to discuss the situation but what 
>will be the outcome? Very little to assist the US, I think.
> 
> But will this situation develop into a large regional war? Some investors 
>seem to think so and are trying to build this into the share price.
> 
> In my opinion, the likelihood of this happening, is extremely small: As 
>mentioned, crucial countries apart from the Saudis, support the US.
> 
> The US and their Allies can go ahead in Afghanistan but to wage a larger war, 
>they need oil and here the Saudies have the whip hand. They are unlikely to 
>permit such a war.
> 
> In any case, the US would not like to be asked to lose their bases!
> 
> Investors will need to pay less attention to the rhetoric and more to the 
>influential role the Saudis may play!
> 
> Unlike the British who have strict security measures in place due to IRA 
>threats, it is obvious that the FBI and CIA have not performed that well over 
>the years. 
> 
> Hopefully, both branches can now start sacking the willing but non-active 
>personnel: Apparently, another apparatus will be built which will take over 
>the more critical duties, eg security, from the FBI.
> 
> Gerry 
> 
> 
> 
>    
>      
> 
> 
> 
>

Listening to the off -the- cuff = statements=20 by President Bush, one gets the impression that unlike his = predecessor, he=20 is more emotionally inclined.

 

Hearing Clinton talking, one feels that = although=20 his impromptu speech may sound ' loose', yet by training and a sharp = intellect,=20 every word was in fact measured.

 

That is an important distinction, one = which favours=20 Bill Clinton in International affairs.

 

While Bush has managed to get the = public behind=20 him, his speeches have raised the expectations of the man in the=20 street.

 

The people expect him to carry out his = threats=20 while not being aware of the obstacles ahead.

 

Also, the Press reports that an = unfortunate choice=20 of words, ie. having a 'crusade' is not impressing the moderate = follower of=20 Islam but instead provides ammo. to the fundamentalist in the propaganda = war!

 

There is no doubt that he is a sincere = person but=20 by raising tensions, the people will want results!

 

What are the chances of success? It is = to his=20 credit and promises made to Pakistan that officially, this country = supports the=20 US and so do the U Emirates.

 

These two countries and the Saudis=20 recognized the Taliban republic of Afghanistan.

 

The U Emirates have decided to break = this=20 recognition and that leaves Saudi Arabia with a Moslem population which = already=20 does not like the US bases on their soil.

 

Sofar, because of expected = problems, the Saudi=20 rulers have decided to stand aside. This could be a problem for the = US.

 

The Gulf states will have a meeting = shortly to=20 discuss the situation but what will be the outcome? Very little to = assist the=20 US, I think.

 

But will this situation develop into a = large=20 regional war? Some investors seem to think so and are trying to build = this into=20 the share price.

 

In my opinion, the likelihood of = this=20 happening, is extremely small: As mentioned, crucial countries = apart from=20 the Saudis, support the US.

 

The US and their Allies can go = ahead in=20 Afghanistan but to wage a larger war, they need = oil=20 and here the Saudies have the whip hand. They are unlikely to=20 permit such a war.

 

In any case, the US would not like to = be asked to=20 lose their bases!

 

Investors will need to pay less = attention to the=20 rhetoric and more to the influential role the Saudis may = play!

 

Unlike the British who have strict = security=20 measures in place due to IRA threats, it is obvious that the FBI and CIA = have=20 not performed that well over the years. 

 

Hopefully, both branches can now = start sacking=20 the willing but non-active personnel: Apparently, another apparatus = will be=20 built which will take over the more critical duties, eg = security, from the=20 FBI.

 

Gerry