Forum Archive Index - September 2001

["Ian Andrews" <iandrews@ihug.co.nz>]

The pattern of a major crash followed by full recovery , then a currency crisis , partial recovery , then a weakening market followed by war has been seen before in the 1930's.There is nothing new under the sun... The only debate is whether the chicken or the egg came first.

 

Using this context, my reading of technical indicators is that the Dow will trade in the 9600-9100 range until the 3 October Federal Reserve meeting & thereafter drift slowly higher on average volumes as 9 months of interest rate cuts kick in.

 

Commitment of money to the US share market would be sharply higher after New Year as corporate profits turn around.

 

I don't see the war threat is having much impact on financial markets, as gold & oil prices haven't moved significantly, as one might expect if the market makers were really uncertain. 

 

The Second World War called for the employment of large quantities relatively expensive labour & governments had to tax & borrow at record rates to fund it. Warfare is now more efficient than then... but I wish there was another way.