----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, September 07, 2001 10:43
PM
Subject: [sharechat] Overseas Sentiment
and our NZ market?
Hi all
whilst overseas markets, especially US, look
decidedly shaky, is it time to consider selling our good performing NZ
shares? The $64,000 - does it matter how well NZ performs when the
overseas markets have such a big influence? As the old saying goes, when
NY sneezes the rest of the world coughs. I believe the US is going
through a sustained coughing fit for a few more months and markets like NZ
will catch pneumonia.
Regrettably, stocks that constitute our "mid"
sized companies are performing well (exception of course being poor old AIRVA
- yet another well managed NZ company.......) with great returns, profits, and
dividends. The big guys who constitute the so called "top 10" aren't
looking so flash;
IMHO:
AIA
should be ok, unless US / Asian
/European tourism numbers plummet which seems unlikely. Commerce
commission won't be a big factor.
CAH & FFS slowdown in US
will adversely impact Asian buyers of wood. Pick the one good year out
of seven they make a half decent profit and you'll do ok. Otherwise
forget them.
INL poor performer, PE and
shareprice far to high relative to profits of other companies.
If Newscorp face cashflow problems in the future then they may sell out
of our tiny market - who would buy INL??
NCH yep, another example of how
not to run your business and blame others for your problems eg government,
weather, Holmes show...
SKY I'd prefer to invest in the
advertising / marketing company that wrote their recent
"loss"announcement. 10/10 for convincing a gullible media and
public that all is well. How long do you need to be in business before
producing a profit, 11 years or longer?? Forget them plus the capital
notes.
TEL doesn't matter what they do
in NZ, the markets to small and to expand in Ozzy costs too much. Paid
to much for AAPT (fortunately, not as much as AIR paid for Ansett...).
If Telstra and Saturn got their act together they would be in trouble in both
markets. Telco's overseas have more downside yet due to the exorbitant
monies spent on the pot of gold called 3g. Interesting to see that
Vodafone have admitted 3g problems. More downside, would consider TEL at
$4.25
WHS potential and probably the
best of the lot. Sad to see the Silly Sollies stores in Queensland are
total rubbish, worse than the Warehouse stores 10 years ago. Will take a
long time for WHS to turn them around plus the Ozzy companies (ie CML) won't
sit back and watch WHS take the market over as they have in NZ.
I hope I'm wrong, time will tell.
Happy investing
Disclaimer: hold NZ & Ozzy
shares plus unit trusts
See IRG research reports
