Forum Archive Index - September 2001

["geoff_julie" <gk_jawalker@paradise.net.nz>]

Hi all

 

whilst overseas markets, especially US, look decidedly shaky, is it time to consider selling our good performing NZ shares?  The $64,000 - does it matter how well NZ performs when the overseas markets have such a big influence?  As the old saying goes, when NY sneezes the rest of the world coughs.  I believe the US is going through a sustained coughing fit for a few more months and markets like NZ will catch pneumonia.

 

Regrettably, stocks that constitute our "mid" sized companies are performing well (exception of course being poor old AIRVA - yet another well managed NZ company.......) with great returns, profits, and dividends.  The big guys who constitute the so called "top 10" aren't looking so flash; 

 

IMHO:

 

AIA                should be ok, unless US / Asian /European tourism numbers plummet which seems unlikely.  Commerce commission won't be a big factor.

 

CAH & FFS    slowdown in US will adversely impact Asian buyers of wood.  Pick the one good year out of seven they make a half decent profit and you'll do ok.  Otherwise forget them.

 

INL    poor performer, PE and shareprice far to high relative to profits of other companies.  If Newscorp face cashflow problems in the future then they may sell out of our tiny market - who would buy INL??

 

NCH    yep, another example of how not to run your business and blame others for your problems eg government, weather, Holmes show...

 

SKY    I'd prefer to invest in the advertising / marketing company that wrote their recent "loss"announcement.  10/10 for convincing a gullible media and public that all is well.  How long do you need to be in business before producing a profit, 11 years or longer??  Forget them plus the capital notes. 

 

TEL    doesn't matter what they do in NZ, the markets to small and to expand in Ozzy costs too much.  Paid to much for AAPT (fortunately, not as much as AIR paid for Ansett...).  If Telstra and Saturn got their act together they would be in trouble in both markets.  Telco's overseas have more downside yet due to the exorbitant monies spent on the pot of gold called 3g.  Interesting to see that Vodafone have admitted 3g problems.  More downside, would consider TEL at $4.25

 

WHS    potential and probably the best of the lot.  Sad to see the Silly Sollies stores in Queensland are total rubbish, worse than the Warehouse stores 10 years ago.  Will take a long time for WHS to turn them around plus the Ozzy companies (ie CML) won't sit back and watch WHS take the market over as they have in NZ.

 

I hope I'm wrong, time will tell.

 

Happy investing

 

 

Disclaimer:    hold NZ & Ozzy shares plus unit trusts