Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

Fair enough but there still some questions to be answered and somebody 
must know, there must be some Newmarket shareholders somewhere.
My recollection is that some other property crowd guaranteed Newmarket
dividends for a certain period of time and my feeling like the first
gentleman
who wrote is that surely this must have elapsed by now.
I know the news media are rather pathetic on keeping their ratios up to
date
or annotating them with useful info (e.g. halve the Telecom one to get the
right
answer) but I strongly suspect the Newmarket dividend and ratios are old
stale and fishy. If they aren't I'd like to know about it with a view to
buying some.
There, you can't get anymore direct than that.
I guess this will just sink into the primeval ooze as usual.

cheers,
Hugh


----------
> From: Bruce Harris <bruce99@freemessage.com>
> To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> Subject: [sharechat] Re: Newmarket Property
> Date: Thursday, 12 July 2001 20:39
> 
> Most of us would be content with a 15% return medium term. your valid
question is how long they can sustain this dividend. You note that the PE
is apparently 21. Others will have a better explanation, but how I use PEs
is to divide them into 100- in this case giving a return in a profit sense
of approximately 5%. I note that thier PE on the Direct Broking site is
shown at about 48- i.e. a return of 2%. In either case they therefore fund
most of their dividend out of reserves- this is not sustainable for a long
period- unless their earnings increase. even at the PE of 20- or return of
5%- they will need to grow earnings 200% to fund the dividend out of
profits. Or 100% if you are happy with 10%.
> Am not that familiar with the Akld commercial property market but doubt
they will achieve that kind of growth. In fact there must be some sort of
risk of a decline. Also the portfolio is not all that big so that
management costs must be relatively high as a proportion of revenues.
> So up to you- but the 15% looks difficult to sustain- unless there's
something about the company that is not obvious. Regards, Bruce
> 
> 
> Sign up for your FREEMessage account at 
> http://www.freemessage.com
> 
> 
>
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