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Grant i wont
monopolise the forum regarding this topic but
i think you should turn the question on its
head and ask yourself .
Assume there is no
upside in FFS and it stays at
this level for 2 years or
longer .?
then a carrot being
offered re Rubicon might change the
comparison between the two shares to an
even greater degree.
the ironic thing about
this situation is that rubicon was
formed for no other reason than to
facilitate the rights issue re FFS. many
have suffered a loss (paper or
realised) and i am not being critical
of that, yet this is an opportunity
to recoup that loss by getting out
of ffs and yet staying in !!
Rubicon would not be
offering the share buyback scheme if
they did not see further promise in
this company.although in saying that, to
take a punt and it is purely that,
i dont see rubicon existing in twelve
months, remembering that their only remaining
assets are forestry related (
once the cnif saga / Citic court action
has been resolved ) and are likely to to
be transferred , by way of sale
back to ffs back to whence they first
came from . the remaining cash held by
rubicon from asset sales would therefore be
returned to shareholders .these are my
thoughts
mike g
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, July 07, 2001 5:43
PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] ffs
Now I see that Gerry has given us all some excellent advice (26
March) when he recommended RBC. At that time it was 43c whereas FFS was just
over 30c. RBC has since climbed over 70%, whilst FFS is still back at 30c. RBC
was obviously the share of choice for those preferring to grow wealth, as
opposed to burying money in the ground.
However, some of us opted for
the hole in the ground (for various reasons), and still hold FFS.
The
question has again been raised as to whether to stick with FFS (in the hope
that a bid against the central Nth Island receivership might raise the share
value towards what some brokers believe is the fair valuation of 40c) - or
switch belatedly to RBC, given prospects of a further rise towards 90c-$1 over
the next few months.
Granted, it would have been smarter to have
switched back in March. But doesn't any decision now depend on the upside you
think RBC has, relative to FFS? If FFS rises to 40c, that's a 33% gain. If RBC
makes it to 90c, that's a 22% gain (minus brokerage costs in transferring
shares). Except that any rise in FFS will cascade into a further rise in
RBC, pushing this even higher. So, it looks as if even a late switch to
RBC holds better potential - is is that how RBC holders see
things?
Greg E (hold FFS)
From: "tonysw"
<tonysw@xtra.co.nz>
Reply-To:
sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 22:18:57
+1200
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Subject: Re:
[sharechat] ffs
Thanks for info Mike. I'm going
back to watch TV with calculator to do exercise yet again! Its hard when
you're down 47% with quite a sizeable parcel. Although I have traded in
& out of ffs over recent months & pulled back some
losses.
Regards Tonyw
----- Original Message -----
From: mrgoodall
<mailto:mrgoodall@xtra.co.nz>
To:
sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Sent: Sunday, 8 July 2001 9:59
a.m.
Subject: Re: [sharechat] ffs
Tony this is not an answer to your
question ,but it has been
mentioned many times on this forum
a shift to rubicon even at
this stage of the play
would
seem a wise move ( their are
people on this forum who initially
put a lot of work into
researching
the worth of Rubicon )
although it is only right of me
to point out that investment decisions must
obviously be your own responsability
!!
two points you should note
1
rubicon still has imho further upside (
chairman Luke Moriarty stated that the
company will in the next month
( that was a week ago) make
a return to shareholders by way
of a share buyback that can only
be positive.nta approx 90 cent
-$1.00
current price 74
cents.
2
rubicon shareholders still have a
stake in ffs
and the (possible)
upside re sale of
cnif.
so to summarise you are getting
(with rubicon ) ffs ++??
disc (hold
rbc)
ps look over old posts (im
assuming you havent forgive me
if im wrong) containing
rubicon
regards mike g
----- Original Message -----
From: tonysw
<mailto:tonysw@xtra.co.nz>
To:
sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Sent: Friday, July 06, 2001 9:18
PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] ffs
I might of mist some posts, but can some enlighten me as to
what est. value is thought to be. My rough calc. for US$367m
Chinese money would make them .31c!
So much for holding out for
..60c!
Another fire sale?
Tonyw
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