Forum Archive Index - July 2001

[Greg <g&jelliott@xtra.co.nz>]

Title: Re: [sharechat]   ffs

Now I see that Gerry has given us all some excellent advice (26 March) when he recommended RBC. At that time it was 43c whereas FFS was just over 30c. RBC has since climbed over 70%, whilst FFS is still back at 30c. RBC was obviously the share of choice for those preferring to grow wealth, as opposed to burying money in the ground.

However, some of us opted for the hole in the ground (for various reasons), and still hold FFS. 

The question has again been raised as to whether to stick with FFS (in the hope that a bid against the central Nth Island receivership might raise the share value towards what some brokers believe is the fair valuation of 40c) - or switch belatedly to RBC, given prospects of a further rise towards 90c-$1 over the next few months. 

Granted, it would have been smarter to have switched back in March. But doesn't any decision now depend on the upside you think RBC has, relative to FFS? If FFS rises to 40c, that's a 33% gain. If RBC makes it to 90c, that's a 22% gain (minus brokerage costs in transferring shares).  Except that any rise in FFS will cascade into a further rise in RBC, pushing this even higher.  So, it looks as if even a late switch to RBC holds better potential - is is that how RBC holders see things?

Greg E (hold FFS)
> From: "tonysw" <tonysw@xtra.co.nz>
> Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2001 22:18:57 +1200
> To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Subject: Re: [sharechat]   ffs

> Thanks for info Mike. I'm going back to watch TV with calculator to do exercise yet again! Its hard when you're down 47% with quite a sizeable parcel. Although I have traded in & out of ffs over recent months & pulled back some losses.
> Regards Tonyw
> > ----- Original Message ----- 
> > From: mrgoodall <mailto:mrgoodall@xtra.co.nz>  
> > To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz 
> > Sent: Sunday, 8 July 2001 9:59 a.m.
> > Subject: Re: [sharechat] ffs
> >
> > Tony  this  is  not  an answer to your  question  ,but  it   has  been  mentioned  many  times  on this  forum   a  shift  to  rubicon  even  at  this    stage  of  the  play
> > would  seem  a  wise move  (  their  are  people  on  this  forum  who  initially  put  a  lot  of  work  into  researching
> > the  worth  of  Rubicon  )  although   it  is  only  right of  me  to point out  that investment  decisions  must  obviously  be  your  own  responsability !!
> > two  points  you  should  note
> > 1  rubicon  still has  imho  further upside  ( chairman  Luke  Moriarty  stated  that  the  company  will  in  the  next  month   (  that  was  a  week ago)  make  a  return  to shareholders   by  way  of  a  share  buyback  that can  only  be  positive.nta  approx  90 cent  -$1.00
> > current  price  74 cents.
> >  
> > 2  rubicon  shareholders   still  have  a stake  in  ffs
> > and  the  (possible)   upside   re   sale  of   cnif.
> >  
> > so  to summarise  you  are  getting  (with  rubicon  ) ffs ++??
> > disc  (hold  rbc)
> > ps  look  over  old  posts (im  assuming   you  havent  forgive  me  if  im  wrong)    containing  rubicon
> > regards mike g
> > > ----- Original Message ----- 
> > > From: tonysw <mailto:tonysw@xtra.co.nz>  
> > > To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz 
> > > Sent: Friday, July 06, 2001 9:18 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [sharechat] ffs
> > >
> > > I might of mist some posts, but can some enlighten me as to what est.  value is thought to be. My rough calc. for US$367m Chinese money would make them .31c!
> > > So much for holding out for ..60c!
> > > Another fire sale?
> > > Tonyw
> > > >