Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["mrgoodall" <mrgoodall@xtra.co.nz>]

good  stuff  Snoopy  i  hope  you  make  your  12%    and  i  agree  with
your  points,  from  a  chartists  point  of  view  ,i  cant  speak  from
experience   so  feel  it  better  for  not  to  post  on  this  topic  ,
rather  sit  back  and  learn  a  bit  more (untill my  returns  match  my
beliefs) regards  mike  g
----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Wednesday, July 04, 2001 5:43 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] snoopy


> Hi Mike,
>
> >
> >
> >Snoopy  you  are  content  to hold  telstra  ( a  good  company
> >with  over  90% market  share  ) and  rightly  so , the  difference
> >between  a  long  term  holder  and  a person  using  charts , and
> >trading  accordingly  is  that  they too can  hold  telstra  albeit
> >on  a  revolving  basis  thereby  increasing  their  holding  with
> >no  extra  outlay  by pouring    the  profit back in  to  the
>  stock.
> >
> >
>
>
> That depends on a few things.   The worse any downturn is after
> the the uptrend the better your trading strategy will look. Getting
> out of a trend may lock in your profits, but it may also mean you
> miss out on the next up trend while it is confirmed.  Remember even
> Phaedrus only claims to get it right 60% of the time  (which I
> should add I find quite impressive).   A lot of the 'great trading
> profits' are based upon periods of sufficient volatility in the price
> and the market being sufficiently liquid to allow you to jump in and
> out when you want to.
>
> If you take the theoretical case of a share that just rises steadily
> in value, then any sort of trading would be madness and would only
> serve to reduce your profits.  Of course, no share behaves exactly
> like this, so to some extent the point is moot.  Nevertheless the
> closer a real share approxiamtes this ideal the less likely trading
> will provide you with more capital at the end of the day than buy and
> hold.   Take a share like Wrightson's for instance.   I think you
> will find buy and hold is a superior strategy for that over the last
> 12 months.
>
> >
> >
> >It  seems  to  me  by  being  a long  term  holder people
> > seem to  get  the  idea  that  they  lessen  the  risk  i  would
> > suggest  from  the  compelling  evidence  shown  to  us  from
> > Phaedrus  that   more  than  being  a  tool  which  it  is , it
> > basically  mimics  peoples emotions  towards  a particular  share
> > hence  the  support  and  resistance  levels .  there  is  little
> > risk  in  waiting  long  enough  for  a  share  price  to  rise  but
> >  there  may  not  be  much  profit  either .
> >
> >
>
> For me the greater risk would be being out of the market
> completely at the wrong time.   I'm quite happy to buy a share
> knowing that I don't expect it to move for 6 months or so.   I'll
> trade off a little flat period in exchange for not having the angst
> to get timing my entry point exactly right.
>
> >
> >
> >I  dont  say  you  are  doing  the  wrong  thing
> > Snoopy after  all  you  have  to  be
> > happy  with  the  decisions  you make just that  you  may  be
> > limiting  your  profit.
> >
> >
> I probably am limiting my profit.   But my target this year is a
> relatively modest 12% over the year, so I don't have to adopt
> overly risky strategies to achieve this. SNOOPY
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "Q: If you call a dog tail a leg, how many legs does a dog have?"
> "A: Four.  Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg."
>
>
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