Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["Paul and Noriko" <pan@muh.biglobe.ne.jp>]

I think that is a great comment. Yet charts are useful in that they present
the same info in a different way. People respond differently to different
stimuli, just in the way that students do in relation to different teaching
styles. Some investors don't need charts to consistently beat the average -
and can't understand why or how others need the charts to get the same
result. People should just respect that, and stop having the endless
argument over what is more useful. It certainly is fascinating as an
investor to be made aware of a different approach to being successful.
There's nothing wrong with that at all.


----- Original Message -----
From: <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>
To: Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>; <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Monday, 2 July 2001 09:25
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Chartists.


> "That wasn't a small dip in Frucor's share price. The
>  uptrend was over. For the first time in two months there were lower peaks
and
> lower
>  valleys - the usual definition of a downtrend. Whether the stock went up,
down
> or
>  sideways from here on would not alter the fact that there had been an
uptrend,
> and
>  it had ended."
>
> The part that puzzles me is that if charting doesn't predict then what is
the
> point of it? It doesn't analyse in terms of the things that matter i.e.
the
> quality of the management, the product, the market characteristics,the
gross
> yield %, the nta per share, the p/e, the yield on shareholders funds, the
growth
> of earnings per share.
> So, if it doesn't predict and it doesn't analyse why bother doing it? Its
just
> a diversion of energy and reources from the things that do matter to
serious
> investors.
> Is the apparent info that the 'uptrend has ended' useful? Not unless it
can
> be relied on (highly doubtful) or that there is a rationale for it that
can
> be analysed in meaningful terms e.g. a competing product has come on the
market
> - but surely that sort of info will have become apparent much earlier from
elsewhere
> without relying on charts.
> "Whether the stock went up down or sideways from here...." So what's the
point
> of saying the uptrend had ended if the stock then resumed its upward
movement?
> It might have been caused by say the chairman having a heart attack and
then
> recovering but the chart doesn't tell you that.
>
>
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